Every year, BP releases an annual report that provides insights into global energy trends. The latest edition forecasts that the rise of autonomous electric vehicles and shared mobility could significantly reduce oil consumption in the transportation sector. However, increasing energy demand from emerging economies like China and India is expected to offset this decline, driving overall global energy consumption higher.
This year’s report extends its forecast horizon to 2040, a five-year expansion compared to previous years. It also places greater emphasis on regional and industry-specific shifts in energy demand. Under a gradual transition scenario—where policy, technology, and societal preferences evolve at a pace similar to the past—several key trends are highlighted.
First, China and India will play a major role in boosting global energy demand. The report predicts that by 2040, their combined growth will account for over one-third of the world’s total energy demand, with India being the primary driver. While China’s oil demand is expected to slow down in the 2030s, its overall energy needs will still rise steadily.
At the same time, global efforts to improve energy efficiency are gaining momentum. For example, the EU’s GDP is projected to triple by 2040, yet its energy demand will remain nearly flat compared to 1975 levels. Globally, the report estimates that GDP will more than double by 2040, while energy use will only increase by 35%, showing a strong shift toward more efficient energy use.
By 2040, the global energy mix is expected to undergo significant changes. Oil, natural gas, coal, and non-fossil fuels will each make up roughly 25% of the total. Natural gas will see the strongest growth, surpassing coal as the second-largest energy source. Renewable energy, meanwhile, is set to grow fivefold, contributing 40% of the total energy increase and rising from 4% to 14% of the global energy mix.
The report also highlights the growing impact of electric vehicles (EVs). By 2040, EVs are expected to account for 15% of all vehicles on the road, with their usage frequency increasing significantly. They are predicted to cover 30% of total vehicle mileage. The number of EVs worldwide is expected to reach nearly 190 million by 2035, jumping to 320 million by 2040—more than 100 times the current level of 3 million. This growth is driven by both hybrid and fully electric vehicle sales, especially between 2035 and 2040. At the same time, the global car fleet is expected to grow by 15%, reaching 2 billion vehicles.
Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, noted that the widespread adoption of EVs could radically reshape the energy market. The report assumes that if global sales of oil-based vehicles were banned after 2040, oil demand could fall by 10 million barrels per day.
Another major trend identified is the convergence of shared mobility and autonomous driving. The report suggests that self-driving electric vehicles will replace traditional private car ownership, leading to more frequent and efficient use of vehicles. Electric cars, due to their lower operating costs, are expected to dominate the shared mobility sector, having the greatest impact on oil demand. According to the report, EVs will be driven 2.5 times more frequently than conventional vehicles in future travel models.
The report also predicts that by the 2030s, autonomous driving technology will become widely available. Initially, it will likely be offered through institutions or companies providing shared mobility services, rather than individual consumers. As the cost of these services drops by 40–50% when drivers are no longer needed, the popularity of shared self-driving cars is expected to surge.
Finally, the report notes that global oil demand is expected to peak in the late 2030s at around 110 million barrels per day—unlike previous reports, which did not predict a peak. While transportation remains the largest oil-consuming sector, the petrochemical industry, particularly plastics manufacturing, is expected to see strong growth. However, if regulations on plastic use continue to expand, oil demand in this sector could decrease by about 200 million barrels per day.
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