On July 31, Jianghuai Automobile disclosed its 2018 semi-annual performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit in the first half of this year will be 164 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53%; non-net profit will be -436 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 326%. . As the performance continued to decline, the stock price also fell. As of the close of the market on August 2, JAC’s stock price was only 5.93 yuan per share, which was 40% lower than the 2014 benchmark price of 10.12 yuan per share when JAC was listed as a whole, a record low since June 2013.
In fact, JAC can be said to be one of the oldest vehicle manufacturers in China's history, but its sales performance has been declining recently. Starting to decline at the end of 2016 and entering 2017, JAC's sales are even more unbearable. In the first half of 2018, the performance was even cut in the past. Why did JAC, which should have a promising future, be so miserable now?
JAC’s performance has actually been on the slide as early as 2017. Jianghuai Automobile’s 2017 annual report shows that the net profit of the listed company last year was 432 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.82%; the deduction of non-net profit was -931.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 111.04%.
Regarding the decline in performance in 2017, the reason given by JAC in its annual report that year was that it was affected by factors such as the decline in sales of SUV products, the decline in new energy subsidies, and the increase in raw material prices.
It can be seen from JAC's sales data in the first half of 2018 that JAC has a serious lack of competitiveness in the fuel vehicle market. For example, the sales of SUV models that drove Jianghuai’s sales growth in the past two years decreased by 33.28% year-on-year in the first half of 2018. Another type of heavy-duty trucks that JAC used to be the main sales volume in the first half of 2018 also decreased by 19.73% year-on-year. These may be the main reasons for the sharp decline in Jianghuai's performance.
At the same time, it can also be seen that over-reliance on new energy vehicle subsidies brings huge uncertainty to the performance of enterprises, because the subsidy policy is always in the process of dynamic adjustment.
In the first half of 2018, JAC included 720 million yuan in government subsidies included in non-recurring profits and losses for the current period, and net profit after deduction was -436 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 326%. In 2017, the government subsidies included in the current non-recurring profits and losses were 602 million yuan, and the net profit after deduction was -931.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 111.04%.
In 2017, JAC’s new energy vehicle revenue was 5.202 billion yuan, of which the subsidy amount for new energy vehicles was 2.133 billion yuan, accounting for 41.02%.
It can be seen from the above data that government subsidies have made a great contribution to JAC. Without these subsidies, JAC's performance in the past two years has actually been a loss.
And entering the second half of the year, JAC's performance may face greater pressure. The continued decline in the sales of fuel vehicles may have been accumulated and hard to return. In the field of new energy, the power battery of the new iEV6E has increased by 10-20 kWh compared with the old model, and the cost has risen and subsidies have decreased. Therefore, it is on the basis of maintaining the terminal price unchanged. However, the profitability of this new energy main vehicle model may drop significantly.
In addition to iEV6E, JAC will also sell iEVA50, iEVA60, iEV7S and other new energy models on the market in the second half of this year. According to the latest statistics from the Travel Association, the current sales of iEVA50 and iEV7S that have been launched are very low, and consumers' expectations for the iEVA60, which will only be launched in the second half of the year, do not seem to be too high.
2. Marrying the public, OEM Weilai, but reduced to an OEM factory?Jianghuai Automobile, whose sales have repeatedly suffered from Waterloo, wants to enhance its brand power through a series of strategic cooperation, but the effect is not obvious.
On April 8, 2016, Jianghuai Automobile announced that the listed company and Weilai Automobile have signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. The two parties will comprehensively promote cooperation in the new energy vehicle and intelligent networked vehicle industry chain. The overall cooperation scale is expected to be about 10 billion yuan. .
However, since the two parties announced that they have reached a strategic cooperation, Jianghuai Automobile has become a foundry factory. And after the new car was released, Weilai Automobile quickly drew a clear line with Jianghuai Automobile. Not only did the Chinese character logo of "Jianghuai Weilai" be cut out on the exhibition car in the experience center, but also repeatedly emphasized that the Weilai ES8 will not be produced on the same line as the JAC brand. This car is a brand new factory built by JAC for Weilai. Produced in.
Not only that, since the Weilai ES8 was announced on December 16, 2017, the retail volume has been a mystery. Coupled with more and more luxury car companies entering the electric car market, NIO will face fierce competition in the future. Therefore, the cooperation between JAC and Weilai not only has not improved the brand power, but also has no profit to make!
In addition to Weilai, JAC also married with Volkswagen. In 2017, JAC joined hands with Volkswagen to produce pure electric vehicles. Although there are many benefits for JAC, it is somewhat suspected of becoming a foundry. At the same time, according to media reports, the products of JAC and Volkswagen will not use the Volkswagen brand logo, which means that people will not see Volkswagen cars with the "JAC Volkswagen" tail logo.
3. Subsidy refunds, prospects for capacity under construction are unknown, and there is no hope for a comeback with new energyAt present, JAC cannot find a single model in its current product lineup, which can reverse the current unfavorable situation. Therefore, Jianghuai can only pin its hopes in the field of new energy. Indeed, in 2017, JAC’s new energy vehicle sales totaled 28,300 units throughout the year, a sharp increase of 54% year-on-year. According to data, in February of this year, JAC's new energy vehicle sales were 3,048, a year-on-year growth rate of 2,238%, ranking third. Cumulative sales from January to February reached nearly 7,000 vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 523.5%. It is predicted that the first quarter is expected to exceed 10,000 vehicles.
However, with the adjustment of the new energy subsidy policy, JAC's bet on new energy may not be worry-free. In 2016, the new energy vehicle segment achieved a total revenue of 3.269 billion yuan, received a subsidy amount of 3.574 billion yuan, and the subsidy accounted for 109.31%. In 2017, the revenue of new energy vehicles was 5.202 billion yuan, of which 2.133 billion yuan was government subsidies, accounting for 41.02%. With the decline in subsidies, in 2017, the bicycle subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles iEV4, iEV5 and iEV6S decreased from 90,000 yuan to 54,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 40%.
Not only that, because the energy density of the battery system failed to meet the minimum requirement for new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018, JAC's many models, including iEV7, will not be able to receive state subsidies from June 12 this year. If the subsidy is reset to zero, it will have a serious impact on JAC's receivables.
It is understood that Jianghuai Automobile has deployed in the new energy field, betting its "treasure" on two projects, new energy passenger vehicles and pure electric light trucks. According to the 2017 annual report, these two projects are still under construction and are expected to be put into operation this year. Moreover, these two projects are also developed based on the new energy vehicle policy. However, with the retreat of new energy policy subsidies, the future development is not as good as Jianghuai hopes.
In addition, market competition between passenger cars and light trucks has intensified, and sales of related models have declined last year. In 2017, the sales of SUVs, which accounted for 54.61% of the total sales of JAC passenger vehicles, decreased by 55.96% year-on-year, and the sales of light trucks also decreased by 0.64% year-on-year.
In the context of declining new energy subsidies and declining sales of related models, whether the production capacity under construction can still reach the revenue and profit expected by the listed company when it constructs the project in 2015 is worrying.
Summary: It can be seen that it is not easy for auto companies that do not have the profit support of traditional vehicles to achieve substantial development in new energy vehicles. Moreover, under the background of the decline or even withdrawal of new energy subsidies, the performance pressure of enterprises will be great. Therefore, good products are the key to enterprise development and the key to all competitions.
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