"Polysilicon prices have fallen, and there are certainly some challenges for our sales." Wang Jun, president of Oerlikon China, which produces thin-film battery equipment, said in an interview with reporters recently. Many photovoltaic companies and analysts also believe that the advantages of thin-film batteries are not obvious in the short term. How to reduce costs and improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells is a top priority.
High investment costs Polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon made of "crystalline silicon battery" is the mainstream market, accounting for more than 70% of the market share; followed by thin film materials based on solar cells, such as cadmium telluride, CIGS copper indium selenide batteries, non- Crystalline silicon thin film battery.
In 2008, the global polysilicon price was as high as 300-450 US dollars per kilogram, which made the cost advantage of thin-film batteries become apparent. Because the investment cost of crystalline silicon batteries has been greater than thin-film batteries.
However, since March 2011, the price of polysilicon dropped to about US$65/kg, and the prices of downstream products such as crystalline silicon batteries and modules also fell across the board. The investment in thin-film batteries was relatively high.
Hou Wentao, a researcher at Xiangcai Securities, told this reporter that a 60-megawatt polycrystalline silicon battery production line is estimated to invest about 1 billion yuan. The reporter learned from a company that is preparing to invest in laminated amorphous silicon thin-film batteries that they are investing in a new production line that is estimated to have 2 billion yuan.
A thin-film battery equipment manufacturer, who declined to be named, also said that in general, building a thin-film battery production line with more than 60 megawatts of production capacity, “The bigger the investment, the higher the scale effect, the most suitable economic return may be to Investing more than 500 MW, it also means that the investment in thin-film batteries is a capital-intensive industry, and investors need to have very good cash flow at hand, and small businesses cannot shake it. The company that tried the water was discouraged."
An insider of Chint Group stated that the company believes that the current investment cost of thin-film batteries is relatively high, so it is being developed and put into use through some major production equipment such as coating and conductive glass, so as to reduce the impact of excessive investment. “The investment of the first two kinds of equipment accounts for more than 50% of the total equipment investment.†He said that there is still room for reduction in the prices of raw materials such as silane needed for some thin-film batteries. At present, thin-film batteries account for 18% of the market's share, and most of the market mainly comes from First Solar, a manufacturer of cadmium telluride thin-film batteries.
Power generation is higher than crystalline silicon batteries?
Thin film batteries have other developmental barriers, that is, 8% to 10% conversion efficiency, which is lower than the current conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells of 13% to 18%. The higher this index, the fewer batteries used in the construction of photovoltaic power plants and the lower the investment cost.
Hou Wentao pointed out that even if thin film batteries continue to increase their conversion efficiency in the future, the price paid is not small.
"In addition, thin-film batteries have other advantages, such as the same 120-megawatt capacity battery, which may generate 10% higher power than crystalline silicon batteries." Wang Jun added.
On the issue of power generation, Mr. Ma of the Certification and Certification Center, which certifies photovoltaic power plants, said that many thin-film battery factories will say that their own power generation is higher than that of crystalline silicon batteries. “But when we are certifying power plant projects, we are generally The instantaneous performance of the indoor test battery module within several tens of seconds. There is currently no universal calculation method that can calculate the long-term accumulation of battery power."
Wang Jun said that laminated thin-film batteries have low requirements for light conditions and easy access to raw materials (unlike crystalline silicon, CIGS, etc., which are affected by the supply of raw materials), and only need to be able to deposit glass, stainless steel at 200 degrees Celsius. Substrate materials such as plastic films and ceramics are convenient for large-scale industrial production and will be favored in the future.
The aforementioned personages of Chint Group pointed out that thin-film batteries are still in a stage of rapid development. With the further expansion of production capacity, the quotation of raw material and equipment suppliers will come down, the investment amount will be reduced, and more companies will enter. "We also plan to reduce the cost of components to 0.65 US dollars per watt within 2 to 3 years."
Wang Jun said that the production cost of relatively good thin-film battery modules has also reached 0.5 euro/watt. "With crystalline silicon, it is only possible to reach the level of 0.7 to 0.8 euro/watt with a production capacity of 1 GW."
High investment costs Polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon made of "crystalline silicon battery" is the mainstream market, accounting for more than 70% of the market share; followed by thin film materials based on solar cells, such as cadmium telluride, CIGS copper indium selenide batteries, non- Crystalline silicon thin film battery.
In 2008, the global polysilicon price was as high as 300-450 US dollars per kilogram, which made the cost advantage of thin-film batteries become apparent. Because the investment cost of crystalline silicon batteries has been greater than thin-film batteries.
However, since March 2011, the price of polysilicon dropped to about US$65/kg, and the prices of downstream products such as crystalline silicon batteries and modules also fell across the board. The investment in thin-film batteries was relatively high.
Hou Wentao, a researcher at Xiangcai Securities, told this reporter that a 60-megawatt polycrystalline silicon battery production line is estimated to invest about 1 billion yuan. The reporter learned from a company that is preparing to invest in laminated amorphous silicon thin-film batteries that they are investing in a new production line that is estimated to have 2 billion yuan.
A thin-film battery equipment manufacturer, who declined to be named, also said that in general, building a thin-film battery production line with more than 60 megawatts of production capacity, “The bigger the investment, the higher the scale effect, the most suitable economic return may be to Investing more than 500 MW, it also means that the investment in thin-film batteries is a capital-intensive industry, and investors need to have very good cash flow at hand, and small businesses cannot shake it. The company that tried the water was discouraged."
An insider of Chint Group stated that the company believes that the current investment cost of thin-film batteries is relatively high, so it is being developed and put into use through some major production equipment such as coating and conductive glass, so as to reduce the impact of excessive investment. “The investment of the first two kinds of equipment accounts for more than 50% of the total equipment investment.†He said that there is still room for reduction in the prices of raw materials such as silane needed for some thin-film batteries. At present, thin-film batteries account for 18% of the market's share, and most of the market mainly comes from First Solar, a manufacturer of cadmium telluride thin-film batteries.
Power generation is higher than crystalline silicon batteries?
Thin film batteries have other developmental barriers, that is, 8% to 10% conversion efficiency, which is lower than the current conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells of 13% to 18%. The higher this index, the fewer batteries used in the construction of photovoltaic power plants and the lower the investment cost.
Hou Wentao pointed out that even if thin film batteries continue to increase their conversion efficiency in the future, the price paid is not small.
"In addition, thin-film batteries have other advantages, such as the same 120-megawatt capacity battery, which may generate 10% higher power than crystalline silicon batteries." Wang Jun added.
On the issue of power generation, Mr. Ma of the Certification and Certification Center, which certifies photovoltaic power plants, said that many thin-film battery factories will say that their own power generation is higher than that of crystalline silicon batteries. “But when we are certifying power plant projects, we are generally The instantaneous performance of the indoor test battery module within several tens of seconds. There is currently no universal calculation method that can calculate the long-term accumulation of battery power."
Wang Jun said that laminated thin-film batteries have low requirements for light conditions and easy access to raw materials (unlike crystalline silicon, CIGS, etc., which are affected by the supply of raw materials), and only need to be able to deposit glass, stainless steel at 200 degrees Celsius. Substrate materials such as plastic films and ceramics are convenient for large-scale industrial production and will be favored in the future.
The aforementioned personages of Chint Group pointed out that thin-film batteries are still in a stage of rapid development. With the further expansion of production capacity, the quotation of raw material and equipment suppliers will come down, the investment amount will be reduced, and more companies will enter. "We also plan to reduce the cost of components to 0.65 US dollars per watt within 2 to 3 years."
Wang Jun said that the production cost of relatively good thin-film battery modules has also reached 0.5 euro/watt. "With crystalline silicon, it is only possible to reach the level of 0.7 to 0.8 euro/watt with a production capacity of 1 GW."
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