The primary problem that China's photovoltaic industry is currently trying to solve is the issue of survival. The fundamental way to solve the problem of survival is how to develop it. There are three core issues that need to be solved in development: the international market, the domestic market, and the technological level. Problems such as gross profit “forced landing†and financial crisis are all due to these three core issues. The strategic principle for solving these three core issues is "extended internal expansion, technological advancement."
The so-called "extension of internal expansion" is to continue to open up the international market. Witnessing the trade protectionism between Europe and the United States and maximizing the maintenance of the incumbent market share in Europe and the United States without sacrificing sharply, we will vigorously develop the international emerging solar energy market represented by Japan, Southeast Asia/Australia, Middle East/Africa, and South America; The "science and technology leader" is to strengthen the research and development of strategic science and technology. Actively overcome the core equipment technology and develop diversified photovoltaic materials to change the position of the domestic solar energy industry in the international industrial chain.
Two erroneous arguments about the status quo of China's photovoltaic industry At present, China's photovoltaic industry has encountered some setbacks and difficulties due to external factors and internal factors. People inside and outside the industry have produced some erroneous arguments. Mainly manifested as "destruction theory" and "waiting for recovery theory."
"Destructionists" believe that China's photovoltaic industry has reached a dead end and there will be no chance for further development in the future. The advocates of "destruction theory" are mainly composed of pessimists in the industry, preconceptions about the development of the photovoltaic industry and other industry players who have a competitive relationship with the photovoltaic industry. They called for investors in the photovoltaic industry to withdraw their investments and switch to other industries. They believe that investing in the photovoltaic industry will be at a loss. These people are either short-sighted or quick-motivated; they either have ulterior motives or have ulterior motives. They ignored the grim reality of the global energy crisis and ignored the development trend of the world's photovoltaic industry.
"Waiting for recovery" believes that in the light of the development of the world's photovoltaic industry in recent years, the photovoltaic industry has not been able to escape the cycle law of two years and one low period. After this low period, it will naturally recover again. Those advocating "waiting for recovery" are mainly composed of optimistic practitioners, traders, speculative securities analysts, and media professionals who have little knowledge of the industry. They called for industry participants to hold a group for the winter and wait for the market to recover again. After imagining that they have undergone industry reshuffling and policy adjustment, they have ushered in another boom in the industry. These people were lucky enough to pin their hopes for the recovery of the industry on the promotion of external forces and pinned on changes in the economic environment. They ignored the fact that polysilicon technology and other industrial technologies advanced rapidly in technology during the 2008 market downturn. As a result, polysilicon prices plummeted and industrial costs dropped drastically, which ushered in the fact that 2010 was a major development. Its argument is too idealistic, and there are serious negative compromises that are equally detrimental to the development of the industry.
China's photovoltaic industry is currently facing the main problems China's photovoltaic industry currently faces four problems, one is the United States and Europe, the second is the emerging market threshold, the third is the policy barriers, the fourth is the financial crisis.
First, the United States and Europe "double anti"
On May 18 this year, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary review of the anti-dumping results of China's solar cells and components, levying anti-dumping duties of up to 31% to 250%. Two months later, several photovoltaic companies in Europe filed a secret complaint with the European Union accusing the Chinese company of obtaining illegal subsidies and dumping, demanding anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese PV products. Experts said that losing the US market will have limited impact on Chinese PV companies, but losing the European market will be a fatal blow.
The data shows that in 2011, China exported about 35.8 billion U.S. dollars of photovoltaic products, and nearly 60% of them were exported to the European Union. The EU is the world’s largest consumer of solar panels. Once the market’s doors are closed, no market will succeed. The outlook for China’s PV companies is worrying.
The root cause of the "double reverse" in the United States and Europe is trade protectionism. Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration pointed out sharply that new energy is considered to be the core of the third industrial revolution in the world, and the new energy industry represented by photovoltaics and wind power has developed rapidly in recent years. And win the first chance in the international market. The European countries and the European countries have successively launched "double reactions" to China's new energy sources. On the surface, it is an international trade dispute, but deep-seated analysis is a war that is competing for opportunities in the third global industrial revolution.
Shi Lishan's anatomy of the industrial conspiracies of European and American countries captured the essence of this incident. The history of the international industry has always been closely linked with the national development strategy. The industry competition itself has a strong political imprint, and trade disputes are only one of the means to achieve industry competition. The WTO was originally one of the tools used by Western countries to control the industries of developing countries. The rules of the game came from their hands. China, as a follower of the rules of the game, is in a natural disadvantaged position in trade disputes. China wants to be in Europe and the United States. In the provoked trade dispute, it is basically impossible to use the rules of the World Trade Game to obtain a fair ruling.
Therefore, do not imagine that the outcome of the anti-dumping ruling of the European Union will be reversed, and do not underestimate the impact of the "double reverse" of the United States and Europe on China's photovoltaic industry. If active and effective countermeasures cannot be taken, the trade disputes provoked by the United States and Europe will only get worse and worse, and the impact on China's photovoltaic industry will become worse and worse, not the other way around.
Second, the threshold of emerging markets At present, Japan has officially adopted a renewable energy incentive policy, while at the same time approved the solar subsidy policy, will encourage the country to add at least 96 billion installed capacity also 3.2 million watts of photovoltaic and solar energy, the output is equivalent to three Nuclear reactor power generation. This policy requires Japanese public utilities to purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind power and geothermal at a preset high price for a period of 20 years. This means that the Japanese government will provide a subsidy of 42 yen per kilowatt-hour for photovoltaic power generation, which is twice the amount of German subsidies and three times the amount of Chinese subsidies. In addition, 23.1 yen will be subsidized for wind power generation, which is much higher than the German subsidy of 4.87 euro cents.
Faced with Japan’s high subsidy policy, Chinese PV companies are eager to try, and some even assert that the Japanese market will replace the German market and become another major and largest application market for the Chinese PV industry. However, the actual situation is not the case.
Just one week before and after the introduction of Japan's incentive policy, the heads of seven or eight photovoltaic companies in China personally flew to Japan to understand the market conditions. However, the result was a setback to their passion. It is not that Japan does not have a demand, but it is very difficult for Chinese PV companies to enter. The market barriers and complex operating procedures of China's PV companies have made China's PV companies at a loss.
Then, emerging markets favored by industry analysts in India, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and Australia also make many Chinese companies extremely confused. How big is the market demand in these emerging market countries? What is the future potential? What kind of profit model does it have? What about industry standards? How do products enter the country's market?
The problems of international emerging markets are plaguing a large number of photovoltaic companies in China. How can we successfully open up emerging markets but not repeat the mistakes of the US and European markets? China urgently needs a system to train international emerging solar energy institutions to complete this mission.
III. Domestic Policy Barriers In August 2011, China issued an on-grid tariff for photovoltaic power generation benchmarks. In 2012, the installation target of the 12th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaic power generation was adjusted several times. The 2015 target was raised from 5GW to 21GW, and the long-term PV installed capacity target in 2020 was raised from 20GW to 50GW. This is undoubtedly a great encouragement to the Chinese photovoltaic industry. On the surface, these policies are like spring breeze, which seems to indicate that China's domestic photovoltaic market will flourish.
The introduction of benchmarking on-grid tariffs has caused the industry to be upset. Although domestic and foreign industry experts disagree with the details of benchmarking prices, they have praised the benchmarking of on-grid tariffs for the Chinese PV industry, and believe that China’s The industry will open up thriving development.
The 12th Five-Year Plan for the installation of photovoltaic installations has repeatedly increased its enthusiasm and once again detonated the enthusiasm of domestic and foreign industry professionals and analysts. Everyone has made optimistic forecasts. Experts and analysts believe that the on-grid photovoltaic power benchmarking price that comes out after long-awaited calls is like a dawn, which is greatly beneficial to the development of China's photovoltaic industry. The introduction of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan aims to make the industry extremely excited, and an analysis agency in Europe even believes that this goal will make China's domestic PV market take off. "This favorable information will undoubtedly further stimulate the Chinese PV market in the next five years. Rapid growth.†“With the shrinking of European demand in the second half of 2012, the Chinese domestic market will become increasingly important.â€
However, what is frustrating is that even though China’s policies have repeatedly provoked people’s confidence, it still cannot change the deteriorating trend of the Chinese PV industry.
Why did the birth of the on-grid price in Germany bring about the prosperity of the global photovoltaic industry, but in China it is just like standing still?
Photovoltaic benchmarking on-grid tariff was introduced. Although vague policies make it difficult for PV power plant owners to accurately calculate input-output ratios, everyone still seizes this life-saving straw and hears the west grabbing the road. At the same time, the desert power station built was unable to connect with the net and stood in the sun in the long desert. Under this circumstance, what contribution does the planning of the 50GW "Sunbathing" project make to the country's energy strategy?
We can understand this by taking a look at the format of China's photovoltaic industry. Most of China's photovoltaic industry is composed of private capital, and the strategic energy industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood is in the hands of a small number of interest groups. These interest classes firmly control the formulation of policies. Therefore, the policy formulated was nothing but a silver-like wax gun.
The development of China's photovoltaic industry still cannot break through policy barriers at home.
IV. Financial crisis At the beginning of August, an article titled “China's Top Ten PV Companies Facing Bankruptcy Crisis†was widely circulated on the Internet. In a few hundred words, the quoted US investment firm Maxim Group said that “China’s largest 10 PV companies have accumulated debts of up to US$17.5 billion (approximately RMB111 billion), including bankruptcy of Jiangxi LDK and Suntech Power. Most likely."
Not to mention the credibility of the data published by U.S. investment institutions, which are accustomed to speculation and fierce speculation, even if it is true that the $17.5 billion in debt is true, but this data can really lead to the "China's top 10 photovoltaic companies bankruptcy" this result. This argument is for our reference, but the financial difficulties faced by China's photovoltaic industry have seen various events in the past six months.
In recent years, Jiangsu has taken the photovoltaic industry as the main development goal. In 2010, it was the fastest growing year. In only one small township, more than 60 photovoltaic projects were under construction, under construction, and have been approved. The leaders of the township are quite proud of it. Now that 90% of these companies are in suspension, some projects under construction have been suspended from 2011 and become "Nailou Photovoltaic Projects" across the fields. Several commercial banks are at a loss as to where their local branches fall into bad debt.
There was only one banker from the Rural Commercial Bank that did not support the photovoltaic industry. One month ago the villain took the opportunity to stand out and make clear the relationship. He gloated and said that he had no vision and wise how he had not invested in the photovoltaic industry.
In any case, judging from the immediate situation, the financial crisis has seriously plagued the Chinese photovoltaic industry. How to intelligently resolve the current situation. It is a difficult problem between the government, enterprises, banks and investors.
The strategic choice of China's photovoltaic industry China's photovoltaic industry's financial crisis, gross margin "forced landing" and other issues are only external manifestations of all core issues. ("Forced landing" means originally that the aircraft was forced to land because it was unable to continue flying because of tragedy, fuel exhaustion failure, etc.). This refers to the fact that the gross profit of the photovoltaic industry has been forced to decline due to shrinking market prices, overcapacity, trade disputes and other issues that caused the market price to drop. .)
At this stage, China's photovoltaic industry must resolutely abandon three illusions: one is the illusion of starting the domestic market in the short term, the other is the illusion that the United States and European countries may give up or ease the double counter-sanctions, and the third is to China and the United States and Europe. Anticipation of anti-sanctions in equipment and raw materials.
The United States and Europe will make China's photovoltaic industry face the loss of a huge existing international market. Under such circumstances, some people will pin their hopes on the start of the domestic market. This is not impossible to achieve, but it is impossible to achieve at all. Large interest groups control the country's strategic energy industry. Assuming that the domestic photovoltaic market has achieved the European scale of development in previous years, it faces a re-adjustment of its energy structure and a re-division of energy interests. Vested interest groups will inevitably block it. At present, although the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation has been introduced, green energy repurchasing has been hampered. This is enough to explain the problem.
Optimists in China's PV industry saw US and European domestic PV companies and groups disagreeing with the dual counter-insurgency, and thus speculated that the US and European countries might veto the Shuangnao or reduce the double counter-sanctions. There are friends in the industry recently to the upcoming foreign heads of state. Visiting China and changing the double-rule rulings have illusions. Again, this is not impossible, but it is impossible at all. Basically speaking, both the United States and Europe are not international trade issues, but are major political issues. Therefore, the United States and Europe will never be soft. They will not allow China's increasingly powerful photovoltaic industry to seize the opportunity of the energy revolution. Despite the fact that China's photovoltaic industry still has a large gap in equipment technology, the rise of China's PV manufacturing industry has kept them vigilant and has adopted preemptive measures. .
While the United States and Europe impose double countervailing sanctions on China, China’s radical activists in the photovoltaic industry argue that the Chinese government should impose countervailing sanctions on US and European supplies of China’s equipment and raw materials or form price alliances to increase the prices of photovoltaic modules exported to the United States and Europe. In order to curb the United States and Europe. This is not impossible, but it is impossible. Since the United States and European countries have imposed severe anti-China sanctions on China, they have shown that they will never put a blunder. While imposing sanctions on China, they are seeking countries with weaker industries as alternatives.
Only by abandoning these three illusions, China's photovoltaic industry can find a strategy that is truly suitable for its own development.
The strategic choice of China's photovoltaic industry must be considered from the three core issues of the international market, the domestic market, and the level of science and technology. These three core issues have been resolved, and other issues will be solved. The basic strategic policy is: "Extend the internal charge, science and technology lead."
Specific to achieve from the following aspects.
I. At the national level 1. Facing the opposite sides, we must face each other in a confrontation, argue with reason, and make full use of the rules of the WTO. Although the results of such a deal may not be satisfactory, open confrontation is inevitable.
2. To innovate the mechanism, vigorously reform the domestic industrial operation mechanism, strengthen the marketization status of the photovoltaic companies, and strive for the equal status of international trade.
3. We must take Wei Wei's strategy of saving Zhao and attack from the flanks. The equipment technology and application market of the photovoltaic industry are out of the picture. The initiative of China's photovoltaic industry is weak, so it is only controlled by people. In this regard, the Chinese government should look for industries that take a proactive position in the division of international industrial chains and impose tit-for-tat sanctions on European countries and the United States so as to ease the risk of the PV industry encountering double-opposition. Just as when playing chess, the other party must use "horses" to step on our "phase". I will "carry out" his "cannon." The other party will have to return to "horse" to protect the "cannon." Our critical situation is solution. Instead of simply retreating "phase", let his "horse" grow straight.
4. The state finances have spent huge sums of money to fund strategic technology research and development. With the national strength to research and develop diversified photovoltaic materials, they have overcome the photovoltaic equipment technology with independent intellectual property rights, increased the conversion rate, and drastically reduced costs. Strengthen the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry and change the status of China's photovoltaic industry in the international industry chain.
5. Reform the energy management system, develop distributed energy systems, actively promote green energy repurchase, and reserve system space for the development of photovoltaic power plants.
6. Change the regional distribution of national industries and advocate the shift of high-energy-consuming industries to follow the pace of photovoltaic power plants. In China's strategy to realize the development of the western region more than 10 years ago, thunder and rain are small, and there has been no real industrial transfer. Instead, the oil and gas coal resources in the west have been developed and transported to the east. In essence, the essence of the western development is the “great prey in the westâ€. . The vast desert area and abundant solar energy resources in western China have the natural advantage of developing photovoltaic power plants. However, solar energy is not as easy to transport as oil, gas and coal resources. It has high transportation costs and large losses. However, there is a shortage of industries in the west and there is little energy demand. This is one of the reasons why the western power station cannot be connected to the grid for power generation. Some people also attacked the need for photovoltaic power stations in the west. If the state can make up its mind to adjust the industrial layout and shift the high-energy-consuming industries to the west, it is bound to further promote the construction of photovoltaic power plants in the western region. Reasonable industrial transfer strategy will inevitably bring high-energy-consuming industries and photovoltaic power plants to each other in the western region. This not only promotes the development of green energy in China, but also plays an important role in promoting the balanced development of the country. The western workforce has achieved In-place conversion, the train will not be crowded during the Spring Festival.
7. The state must assist high-quality large-scale photovoltaic companies and support small photovoltaic companies that hold potential. Over the years, many people have constantly mentioned the problem of overcapacity in China's photovoltaic industry. In fact, overcapacity is only a relative excess of demand, not an absolute surplus. The overcapacity in China's PV industry broke out in 2011. The premise of the outbreak was the unprecedented prosperity of the global PV market in 2010 and the rapid decline in 2010. Market expansion and contraction, how can production capacity go hand in hand? For example, we make a glass bottle of mercury, just filled at room temperature, if the temperature continues to rise we do not need to constantly change the bottle to install, if the bottle can not meet the mercury expansion The space will burst. But if the temperature drops sharply, the space in the bottle will appear excessive. This is a truth.
If we can vigorously develop the international emerging solar energy market and start the domestic market quickly, it is not a problem of overcapacity but a shortage of production capacity.
Now when large companies encounter a financial crisis, SMEs are not expected to go bankrupt early; when small businesses do not get orders to stop production, big companies are desperate to fall. Therefore, the "reshuffle theory" has been set in the industry, and the advocates of shuffling have a mentality. This is the same root, what is too urgent to worry about? The state must look at the nature of the current problems faced, correctly guide and actively create a good development environment for China's photovoltaic industry. Large companies try not to go bankrupt, and small businesses try not to fall. We must expand externally to the emerging international solar energy market and develop the domestic market internally to solve problems with development.
Second, at the corporate level 1. For double opposition, we must actively deploy overseas to avoid its edges. In the face of the upsurge of both the United States and Europe, China's PV companies must not only prepare for the war, but must also adopt a smart strategy. Because the dual counter-sanctions are only part of the photovoltaic industry, we can, on the basis of firmly grasping the core of the industry, take the sanctions link to third-party countries to invest, or directly get investment from the United States and Europe. Infiltrate the industry to make it weak. KFC, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola in the United States are all over China. France’s Carrefour has taken root in China. Can China impose sanctions on it? No, because it has penetrated deeply into China’s domestic economic system, and sanctions are equivalent to sanctions against the country. economic. Therefore, China's photovoltaic industry should also implement industrial infiltration externally, making it ultimately weak. Of course, the specific circumstances are different and the way of infiltration must be carefully studied. What the United States and Europe care about China’s industrial penetration is the huge consumer market and cheap labor in China. The penetration of China into the United States and Europe is another case. Specifically, how to infiltrate and leave it to Chinese economists for further study.
2. For the United States and Europe, China's PV companies must unite, and at the same time use industrial control to win over and indirectly control photovoltaic manufacturing companies in Taiwan, Thailand, India and other countries and regions, and to curb the U.S. industry and control product prices. , increase its double reverse cost.
3. Chinese PV companies should actively develop international emerging solar markets such as Japan, Australia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. Seriously studying the game rules and operating procedures of emerging market countries, we must strive for rapid entry, but also to avoid repeating the mistakes in the United States and Europe. Fully relying on the international emerging solar market training organized by the EU-China Solar Energy Promotion Association and the China Energy Strategy Research Institute, reducing the cost of international market research, accelerating the pace of entry, striving for scientific entry, stable expansion, and long-term profitability.
4. Investment technology research and development to improve product quality and ensure long-term development. Chinese solar energy companies must actively invest in science and technology, innovate products, ensure quality, and maintain a good reputation worldwide. We must closely unite around the China Renewable Energy Society to form a science and technology alliance and quality alliance to jointly create a high-tech and high-quality China photovoltaic industry environment.
In short, China's photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing problems and has encountered major problems. The state must profoundly reflect on the photovoltaic industry itself and consider it from an overall economic perspective. Photovoltaic industrialists must be objectively analyzed and prudently challenged. Foot pain. The government and the enterprise must closely cooperate with each other and make a strategic layout.
The so-called "extension of internal expansion" is to continue to open up the international market. Witnessing the trade protectionism between Europe and the United States and maximizing the maintenance of the incumbent market share in Europe and the United States without sacrificing sharply, we will vigorously develop the international emerging solar energy market represented by Japan, Southeast Asia/Australia, Middle East/Africa, and South America; The "science and technology leader" is to strengthen the research and development of strategic science and technology. Actively overcome the core equipment technology and develop diversified photovoltaic materials to change the position of the domestic solar energy industry in the international industrial chain.
Two erroneous arguments about the status quo of China's photovoltaic industry At present, China's photovoltaic industry has encountered some setbacks and difficulties due to external factors and internal factors. People inside and outside the industry have produced some erroneous arguments. Mainly manifested as "destruction theory" and "waiting for recovery theory."
"Destructionists" believe that China's photovoltaic industry has reached a dead end and there will be no chance for further development in the future. The advocates of "destruction theory" are mainly composed of pessimists in the industry, preconceptions about the development of the photovoltaic industry and other industry players who have a competitive relationship with the photovoltaic industry. They called for investors in the photovoltaic industry to withdraw their investments and switch to other industries. They believe that investing in the photovoltaic industry will be at a loss. These people are either short-sighted or quick-motivated; they either have ulterior motives or have ulterior motives. They ignored the grim reality of the global energy crisis and ignored the development trend of the world's photovoltaic industry.
"Waiting for recovery" believes that in the light of the development of the world's photovoltaic industry in recent years, the photovoltaic industry has not been able to escape the cycle law of two years and one low period. After this low period, it will naturally recover again. Those advocating "waiting for recovery" are mainly composed of optimistic practitioners, traders, speculative securities analysts, and media professionals who have little knowledge of the industry. They called for industry participants to hold a group for the winter and wait for the market to recover again. After imagining that they have undergone industry reshuffling and policy adjustment, they have ushered in another boom in the industry. These people were lucky enough to pin their hopes for the recovery of the industry on the promotion of external forces and pinned on changes in the economic environment. They ignored the fact that polysilicon technology and other industrial technologies advanced rapidly in technology during the 2008 market downturn. As a result, polysilicon prices plummeted and industrial costs dropped drastically, which ushered in the fact that 2010 was a major development. Its argument is too idealistic, and there are serious negative compromises that are equally detrimental to the development of the industry.
China's photovoltaic industry is currently facing the main problems China's photovoltaic industry currently faces four problems, one is the United States and Europe, the second is the emerging market threshold, the third is the policy barriers, the fourth is the financial crisis.
First, the United States and Europe "double anti"
On May 18 this year, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary review of the anti-dumping results of China's solar cells and components, levying anti-dumping duties of up to 31% to 250%. Two months later, several photovoltaic companies in Europe filed a secret complaint with the European Union accusing the Chinese company of obtaining illegal subsidies and dumping, demanding anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese PV products. Experts said that losing the US market will have limited impact on Chinese PV companies, but losing the European market will be a fatal blow.
The data shows that in 2011, China exported about 35.8 billion U.S. dollars of photovoltaic products, and nearly 60% of them were exported to the European Union. The EU is the world’s largest consumer of solar panels. Once the market’s doors are closed, no market will succeed. The outlook for China’s PV companies is worrying.
The root cause of the "double reverse" in the United States and Europe is trade protectionism. Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration pointed out sharply that new energy is considered to be the core of the third industrial revolution in the world, and the new energy industry represented by photovoltaics and wind power has developed rapidly in recent years. And win the first chance in the international market. The European countries and the European countries have successively launched "double reactions" to China's new energy sources. On the surface, it is an international trade dispute, but deep-seated analysis is a war that is competing for opportunities in the third global industrial revolution.
Shi Lishan's anatomy of the industrial conspiracies of European and American countries captured the essence of this incident. The history of the international industry has always been closely linked with the national development strategy. The industry competition itself has a strong political imprint, and trade disputes are only one of the means to achieve industry competition. The WTO was originally one of the tools used by Western countries to control the industries of developing countries. The rules of the game came from their hands. China, as a follower of the rules of the game, is in a natural disadvantaged position in trade disputes. China wants to be in Europe and the United States. In the provoked trade dispute, it is basically impossible to use the rules of the World Trade Game to obtain a fair ruling.
Therefore, do not imagine that the outcome of the anti-dumping ruling of the European Union will be reversed, and do not underestimate the impact of the "double reverse" of the United States and Europe on China's photovoltaic industry. If active and effective countermeasures cannot be taken, the trade disputes provoked by the United States and Europe will only get worse and worse, and the impact on China's photovoltaic industry will become worse and worse, not the other way around.
Second, the threshold of emerging markets At present, Japan has officially adopted a renewable energy incentive policy, while at the same time approved the solar subsidy policy, will encourage the country to add at least 96 billion installed capacity also 3.2 million watts of photovoltaic and solar energy, the output is equivalent to three Nuclear reactor power generation. This policy requires Japanese public utilities to purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind power and geothermal at a preset high price for a period of 20 years. This means that the Japanese government will provide a subsidy of 42 yen per kilowatt-hour for photovoltaic power generation, which is twice the amount of German subsidies and three times the amount of Chinese subsidies. In addition, 23.1 yen will be subsidized for wind power generation, which is much higher than the German subsidy of 4.87 euro cents.
Faced with Japan’s high subsidy policy, Chinese PV companies are eager to try, and some even assert that the Japanese market will replace the German market and become another major and largest application market for the Chinese PV industry. However, the actual situation is not the case.
Just one week before and after the introduction of Japan's incentive policy, the heads of seven or eight photovoltaic companies in China personally flew to Japan to understand the market conditions. However, the result was a setback to their passion. It is not that Japan does not have a demand, but it is very difficult for Chinese PV companies to enter. The market barriers and complex operating procedures of China's PV companies have made China's PV companies at a loss.
Then, emerging markets favored by industry analysts in India, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and Australia also make many Chinese companies extremely confused. How big is the market demand in these emerging market countries? What is the future potential? What kind of profit model does it have? What about industry standards? How do products enter the country's market?
The problems of international emerging markets are plaguing a large number of photovoltaic companies in China. How can we successfully open up emerging markets but not repeat the mistakes of the US and European markets? China urgently needs a system to train international emerging solar energy institutions to complete this mission.
III. Domestic Policy Barriers In August 2011, China issued an on-grid tariff for photovoltaic power generation benchmarks. In 2012, the installation target of the 12th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaic power generation was adjusted several times. The 2015 target was raised from 5GW to 21GW, and the long-term PV installed capacity target in 2020 was raised from 20GW to 50GW. This is undoubtedly a great encouragement to the Chinese photovoltaic industry. On the surface, these policies are like spring breeze, which seems to indicate that China's domestic photovoltaic market will flourish.
The introduction of benchmarking on-grid tariffs has caused the industry to be upset. Although domestic and foreign industry experts disagree with the details of benchmarking prices, they have praised the benchmarking of on-grid tariffs for the Chinese PV industry, and believe that China’s The industry will open up thriving development.
The 12th Five-Year Plan for the installation of photovoltaic installations has repeatedly increased its enthusiasm and once again detonated the enthusiasm of domestic and foreign industry professionals and analysts. Everyone has made optimistic forecasts. Experts and analysts believe that the on-grid photovoltaic power benchmarking price that comes out after long-awaited calls is like a dawn, which is greatly beneficial to the development of China's photovoltaic industry. The introduction of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan aims to make the industry extremely excited, and an analysis agency in Europe even believes that this goal will make China's domestic PV market take off. "This favorable information will undoubtedly further stimulate the Chinese PV market in the next five years. Rapid growth.†“With the shrinking of European demand in the second half of 2012, the Chinese domestic market will become increasingly important.â€
However, what is frustrating is that even though China’s policies have repeatedly provoked people’s confidence, it still cannot change the deteriorating trend of the Chinese PV industry.
Why did the birth of the on-grid price in Germany bring about the prosperity of the global photovoltaic industry, but in China it is just like standing still?
Photovoltaic benchmarking on-grid tariff was introduced. Although vague policies make it difficult for PV power plant owners to accurately calculate input-output ratios, everyone still seizes this life-saving straw and hears the west grabbing the road. At the same time, the desert power station built was unable to connect with the net and stood in the sun in the long desert. Under this circumstance, what contribution does the planning of the 50GW "Sunbathing" project make to the country's energy strategy?
We can understand this by taking a look at the format of China's photovoltaic industry. Most of China's photovoltaic industry is composed of private capital, and the strategic energy industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood is in the hands of a small number of interest groups. These interest classes firmly control the formulation of policies. Therefore, the policy formulated was nothing but a silver-like wax gun.
The development of China's photovoltaic industry still cannot break through policy barriers at home.
IV. Financial crisis At the beginning of August, an article titled “China's Top Ten PV Companies Facing Bankruptcy Crisis†was widely circulated on the Internet. In a few hundred words, the quoted US investment firm Maxim Group said that “China’s largest 10 PV companies have accumulated debts of up to US$17.5 billion (approximately RMB111 billion), including bankruptcy of Jiangxi LDK and Suntech Power. Most likely."
Not to mention the credibility of the data published by U.S. investment institutions, which are accustomed to speculation and fierce speculation, even if it is true that the $17.5 billion in debt is true, but this data can really lead to the "China's top 10 photovoltaic companies bankruptcy" this result. This argument is for our reference, but the financial difficulties faced by China's photovoltaic industry have seen various events in the past six months.
In recent years, Jiangsu has taken the photovoltaic industry as the main development goal. In 2010, it was the fastest growing year. In only one small township, more than 60 photovoltaic projects were under construction, under construction, and have been approved. The leaders of the township are quite proud of it. Now that 90% of these companies are in suspension, some projects under construction have been suspended from 2011 and become "Nailou Photovoltaic Projects" across the fields. Several commercial banks are at a loss as to where their local branches fall into bad debt.
There was only one banker from the Rural Commercial Bank that did not support the photovoltaic industry. One month ago the villain took the opportunity to stand out and make clear the relationship. He gloated and said that he had no vision and wise how he had not invested in the photovoltaic industry.
In any case, judging from the immediate situation, the financial crisis has seriously plagued the Chinese photovoltaic industry. How to intelligently resolve the current situation. It is a difficult problem between the government, enterprises, banks and investors.
The strategic choice of China's photovoltaic industry China's photovoltaic industry's financial crisis, gross margin "forced landing" and other issues are only external manifestations of all core issues. ("Forced landing" means originally that the aircraft was forced to land because it was unable to continue flying because of tragedy, fuel exhaustion failure, etc.). This refers to the fact that the gross profit of the photovoltaic industry has been forced to decline due to shrinking market prices, overcapacity, trade disputes and other issues that caused the market price to drop. .)
At this stage, China's photovoltaic industry must resolutely abandon three illusions: one is the illusion of starting the domestic market in the short term, the other is the illusion that the United States and European countries may give up or ease the double counter-sanctions, and the third is to China and the United States and Europe. Anticipation of anti-sanctions in equipment and raw materials.
The United States and Europe will make China's photovoltaic industry face the loss of a huge existing international market. Under such circumstances, some people will pin their hopes on the start of the domestic market. This is not impossible to achieve, but it is impossible to achieve at all. Large interest groups control the country's strategic energy industry. Assuming that the domestic photovoltaic market has achieved the European scale of development in previous years, it faces a re-adjustment of its energy structure and a re-division of energy interests. Vested interest groups will inevitably block it. At present, although the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation has been introduced, green energy repurchasing has been hampered. This is enough to explain the problem.
Optimists in China's PV industry saw US and European domestic PV companies and groups disagreeing with the dual counter-insurgency, and thus speculated that the US and European countries might veto the Shuangnao or reduce the double counter-sanctions. There are friends in the industry recently to the upcoming foreign heads of state. Visiting China and changing the double-rule rulings have illusions. Again, this is not impossible, but it is impossible at all. Basically speaking, both the United States and Europe are not international trade issues, but are major political issues. Therefore, the United States and Europe will never be soft. They will not allow China's increasingly powerful photovoltaic industry to seize the opportunity of the energy revolution. Despite the fact that China's photovoltaic industry still has a large gap in equipment technology, the rise of China's PV manufacturing industry has kept them vigilant and has adopted preemptive measures. .
While the United States and Europe impose double countervailing sanctions on China, China’s radical activists in the photovoltaic industry argue that the Chinese government should impose countervailing sanctions on US and European supplies of China’s equipment and raw materials or form price alliances to increase the prices of photovoltaic modules exported to the United States and Europe. In order to curb the United States and Europe. This is not impossible, but it is impossible. Since the United States and European countries have imposed severe anti-China sanctions on China, they have shown that they will never put a blunder. While imposing sanctions on China, they are seeking countries with weaker industries as alternatives.
Only by abandoning these three illusions, China's photovoltaic industry can find a strategy that is truly suitable for its own development.
The strategic choice of China's photovoltaic industry must be considered from the three core issues of the international market, the domestic market, and the level of science and technology. These three core issues have been resolved, and other issues will be solved. The basic strategic policy is: "Extend the internal charge, science and technology lead."
Specific to achieve from the following aspects.
I. At the national level 1. Facing the opposite sides, we must face each other in a confrontation, argue with reason, and make full use of the rules of the WTO. Although the results of such a deal may not be satisfactory, open confrontation is inevitable.
2. To innovate the mechanism, vigorously reform the domestic industrial operation mechanism, strengthen the marketization status of the photovoltaic companies, and strive for the equal status of international trade.
3. We must take Wei Wei's strategy of saving Zhao and attack from the flanks. The equipment technology and application market of the photovoltaic industry are out of the picture. The initiative of China's photovoltaic industry is weak, so it is only controlled by people. In this regard, the Chinese government should look for industries that take a proactive position in the division of international industrial chains and impose tit-for-tat sanctions on European countries and the United States so as to ease the risk of the PV industry encountering double-opposition. Just as when playing chess, the other party must use "horses" to step on our "phase". I will "carry out" his "cannon." The other party will have to return to "horse" to protect the "cannon." Our critical situation is solution. Instead of simply retreating "phase", let his "horse" grow straight.
4. The state finances have spent huge sums of money to fund strategic technology research and development. With the national strength to research and develop diversified photovoltaic materials, they have overcome the photovoltaic equipment technology with independent intellectual property rights, increased the conversion rate, and drastically reduced costs. Strengthen the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry and change the status of China's photovoltaic industry in the international industry chain.
5. Reform the energy management system, develop distributed energy systems, actively promote green energy repurchase, and reserve system space for the development of photovoltaic power plants.
6. Change the regional distribution of national industries and advocate the shift of high-energy-consuming industries to follow the pace of photovoltaic power plants. In China's strategy to realize the development of the western region more than 10 years ago, thunder and rain are small, and there has been no real industrial transfer. Instead, the oil and gas coal resources in the west have been developed and transported to the east. In essence, the essence of the western development is the “great prey in the westâ€. . The vast desert area and abundant solar energy resources in western China have the natural advantage of developing photovoltaic power plants. However, solar energy is not as easy to transport as oil, gas and coal resources. It has high transportation costs and large losses. However, there is a shortage of industries in the west and there is little energy demand. This is one of the reasons why the western power station cannot be connected to the grid for power generation. Some people also attacked the need for photovoltaic power stations in the west. If the state can make up its mind to adjust the industrial layout and shift the high-energy-consuming industries to the west, it is bound to further promote the construction of photovoltaic power plants in the western region. Reasonable industrial transfer strategy will inevitably bring high-energy-consuming industries and photovoltaic power plants to each other in the western region. This not only promotes the development of green energy in China, but also plays an important role in promoting the balanced development of the country. The western workforce has achieved In-place conversion, the train will not be crowded during the Spring Festival.
7. The state must assist high-quality large-scale photovoltaic companies and support small photovoltaic companies that hold potential. Over the years, many people have constantly mentioned the problem of overcapacity in China's photovoltaic industry. In fact, overcapacity is only a relative excess of demand, not an absolute surplus. The overcapacity in China's PV industry broke out in 2011. The premise of the outbreak was the unprecedented prosperity of the global PV market in 2010 and the rapid decline in 2010. Market expansion and contraction, how can production capacity go hand in hand? For example, we make a glass bottle of mercury, just filled at room temperature, if the temperature continues to rise we do not need to constantly change the bottle to install, if the bottle can not meet the mercury expansion The space will burst. But if the temperature drops sharply, the space in the bottle will appear excessive. This is a truth.
If we can vigorously develop the international emerging solar energy market and start the domestic market quickly, it is not a problem of overcapacity but a shortage of production capacity.
Now when large companies encounter a financial crisis, SMEs are not expected to go bankrupt early; when small businesses do not get orders to stop production, big companies are desperate to fall. Therefore, the "reshuffle theory" has been set in the industry, and the advocates of shuffling have a mentality. This is the same root, what is too urgent to worry about? The state must look at the nature of the current problems faced, correctly guide and actively create a good development environment for China's photovoltaic industry. Large companies try not to go bankrupt, and small businesses try not to fall. We must expand externally to the emerging international solar energy market and develop the domestic market internally to solve problems with development.
Second, at the corporate level 1. For double opposition, we must actively deploy overseas to avoid its edges. In the face of the upsurge of both the United States and Europe, China's PV companies must not only prepare for the war, but must also adopt a smart strategy. Because the dual counter-sanctions are only part of the photovoltaic industry, we can, on the basis of firmly grasping the core of the industry, take the sanctions link to third-party countries to invest, or directly get investment from the United States and Europe. Infiltrate the industry to make it weak. KFC, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola in the United States are all over China. France’s Carrefour has taken root in China. Can China impose sanctions on it? No, because it has penetrated deeply into China’s domestic economic system, and sanctions are equivalent to sanctions against the country. economic. Therefore, China's photovoltaic industry should also implement industrial infiltration externally, making it ultimately weak. Of course, the specific circumstances are different and the way of infiltration must be carefully studied. What the United States and Europe care about China’s industrial penetration is the huge consumer market and cheap labor in China. The penetration of China into the United States and Europe is another case. Specifically, how to infiltrate and leave it to Chinese economists for further study.
2. For the United States and Europe, China's PV companies must unite, and at the same time use industrial control to win over and indirectly control photovoltaic manufacturing companies in Taiwan, Thailand, India and other countries and regions, and to curb the U.S. industry and control product prices. , increase its double reverse cost.
3. Chinese PV companies should actively develop international emerging solar markets such as Japan, Australia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. Seriously studying the game rules and operating procedures of emerging market countries, we must strive for rapid entry, but also to avoid repeating the mistakes in the United States and Europe. Fully relying on the international emerging solar market training organized by the EU-China Solar Energy Promotion Association and the China Energy Strategy Research Institute, reducing the cost of international market research, accelerating the pace of entry, striving for scientific entry, stable expansion, and long-term profitability.
4. Investment technology research and development to improve product quality and ensure long-term development. Chinese solar energy companies must actively invest in science and technology, innovate products, ensure quality, and maintain a good reputation worldwide. We must closely unite around the China Renewable Energy Society to form a science and technology alliance and quality alliance to jointly create a high-tech and high-quality China photovoltaic industry environment.
In short, China's photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing problems and has encountered major problems. The state must profoundly reflect on the photovoltaic industry itself and consider it from an overall economic perspective. Photovoltaic industrialists must be objectively analyzed and prudently challenged. Foot pain. The government and the enterprise must closely cooperate with each other and make a strategic layout.
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