Investment in the communications industry will change in 2018. 5G itself is a very important trend direction. Its development direction will affect the development of major industries, especially in investment opportunities, mainly around the 5G line. .
In the upcoming 2018, what kind of investment opportunities will the 5G concept and the entire communications sector usher in? In this regard, Wu Chao, chief analyst of CIC Securities Communications Industry, said in an interview with the media that 2018 is the turning point of investment in the communications industry. The valuation and trend of the entire communications sector are also good. The investment should focus on investment structure and technical capabilities. And cost, profit margin control ability in three directions.
Throughout 2017, the communications industry performed relatively well in the four sub-sections of the entire TMT. Statistics show that the electronics industry has the largest increase, about 20% increase. The communications industry is slightly positive, with a yield of about 3%-4%, which is probably ranked 12th in the 28 first-tier industries of Shenwan.
Wu Chao pointed out that this year, the communications industry is still centered on two relatively strong themes of 5G and optical communications. "Looking at 2018, the 5G itself is still a very important trend. From this year's point of view, many leading white horses have a relatively high growth rate, both from the market value and from the valuation point of view, to a new high in history. But from the big industry In terms of trends, I think that the more important investment opportunities next year will be built around the 5G line."
Wu Chao said, "In terms of the choice of the target, it will not necessarily be the same as this year's full trend around the white horse. It may be next year from some vertical and clear industry policies and standard patents. Around 5G, next year will be There are more subdivided, broader targets for investors to choose."
In addition, Wu Chao added, “The communication industry is accompanied by a strong mapping of the capital expenditure of the entire operator. Because the amount of money the operator spends each year may affect the valuation of the entire communication sector, including emotions. ."
Wu Chao believes that 2017 is a phased low in global capital expenditures. From the perspective of 2018, the capital expenditures of China's three major operators will decline slightly, but the magnitude will not be too large. Globally, the capital expenditure of operators will increase trendingly. If Internet companies, including investment companies such as broadcasting and television, are covered, they may go up trendingly.
Wu Chao pointed out that “the valuation and long-term trend of the entire communication sector in 2018 is definitely good, because capital expenditures have gradually stabilized from 4G investment in 2013-2014. 2018 is a relatively clear turning point. ."
Communication industry investment should focus on three directionsWu Chao believes that investment in the communications industry in 2018 should focus on three directions: investment structure, technical capabilities and costs, and profit margin control capabilities.
Wu Chao pointed out that investors should first pay attention to the investment structure. "Focus on the location of the industry chain in which the listed companies in the communications industry are located, or whether the listed company you choose can stand out as the industry leader in its segmentation, or even the industry leader in the past, but the market can be taken from China in the future. Expand to the world."
Wu Chao mentioned, "In this year's communication sector, ZTE, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hainengda, and Huawei all have such characteristics. These companies can lead all the way in their own subdivisions. Of course, the industry itself also With the increase in concentration, the competitive advantages of such companies are becoming more and more clear. In the long run, these companies have the ability to globalize, not only in China's industrial chain, but also like ZTE and Huawei. It is from overseas."
Wu Chao believes that investors need to pay attention to technical capabilities. "The most important thing that TMT can't do without is the technical ability, especially at the level of listed companies. Just put the industry chain first, the second is from the cycle of innovation of technology itself, or from the rhythm of innovation. This is the core driving force for all driving industries and driving a company's true growth."
Wu Chao pointed out that investors can find companies with core technology advantages in the Internet of Things, 5G, artificial intelligence and so on. For example, in the communications industry, optical modules have performed very well this year. In fact, this is still the continued competitiveness brought about by technological advantages.
In addition, Wu Chao said, “Investors also need to pay attention to the cost control capabilities and profitability of listed companies in the communications industry.â€
5G welcomes the best investment window next yearSince the beginning of this year, the 5G concept has been heated up, and the 5G sector has spawned a lot of bull stocks. While 5G is enjoying continuous release, China's technology is leading the way in the construction of 5G in the world, and the national policy is fully promoted. Wall Street expects that China will start 5G construction in 2019, and the total investment in the next seven years will reach 1.2 trillion, far higher than the 400 billion of 4G.
Wu Chao believes that 5G will usher in the best investment window next year. In fact, the 5G concept has been blasted this year, and the market's reflection and attention are already high.
From the time rhythm and timetable of the whole 5G advancement, 5G will be officially commercialized in 2020; 2019 will be a small-scale trial commercial, and there may be some hot cities including regional trials first; in 2018, 5G will be established as a whole, and Large-scale off-site testing.
"According to the above-mentioned time nodes, there are many catalysts for 5G in the next few years, which may be roughly divided into two stages." Wu Chao pointed out that "one stage is the standard and patent agreement, and this time it will be more subjective investment. A little more; by 2019, you may actually see the theme and performance."
When is 5G able to bring real industry chain output to the industry? Wu Chao believes that this critical time may appear in the second half of 2019 to 2020. Therefore, the above two stages are all about investing in 5G.
Wu Chao specifically pointed out that "statistics show that in the 3G and 4G eras, for example, companies such as ZTE, the best performing stage is basically the performance of the cash, or the year before the licensing, will obviously exceed the index. From this In terms of point, it may not be necessary to wait until the performance is complete, so that the sector can continue."
Wu Chao believes that the establishment of NSA (5G non-independent architecture standard) and the implementation of some standards of SA (5G independent networking) will continue to bring hot spots in 2018. â€
"Because this year's increase is relatively large, this time must have a rhythm. If adjusted, investors can go to the layout before and after the hot spot next year." Wu Chao pointed out that after 2019, there may be more of a trend. Sexual, see the industry's performance. In the selection of the target, it is still necessary to balance both emotions and fundamentals.
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