Every year at the end of the year, new energy vehicles that enjoy policy subsidies will experience a “policy examâ€. This year is no exception. In the near future, various rumours about "subsidy for new energy vehicles will be drastically reduced next year" and "subsidies for the upcoming New Deal is about to come into being" cover the auto industry. Although there is no official exact statement yet, the Beijing Youth Daily reporter comprehensively shows information from multiple parties that next year China’s overall subsidy for new energy vehicles will be attenuated. However, if the subsidy of the new government is as important as the version in the rumors. "Benefit", then the domestic new energy automobile industry will have new competition points next year, technology upgrades, especially the replacement of battery technology will become the main battlefield of the new energy automotive industry next year.
attention
The overall subsidy intensity will be inevitable
The Beiqing Daily reporter learned that, in fact, the gradual reduction in the subsidy for new energy vehicles was determined by the big framework when designing this policy. At the end of last year, several ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had made it clear that subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% in 2016-2018 based on subsidies for 2016-2018, and subsidies for 2019-2020 will decrease by 40 basis in 2016. %, until 2020 financial subsidies completely withdrawn.
In this regard, Lu Huaping, assistant to the Secretary-General of the All-China Federation of Political Parties, revealed to the media a few days ago that the government is studying the adjustment of the subsidy policy next year and is inclined to encourage high mileage and low energy consumption models. He also revealed that the gradual withdrawal of local subsidies will also be a high probability event. Since then, there has been news that Beijing may take the lead in cancelling local subsidies.
In addition, as regards the weakening of subsidies for new energy vehicles, there is still another argument that the current sales of new energy vehicles far exceed expectations, causing subsidies to significantly exceed the budget. On November 10 this year, Dong Yang, executive vice chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, wrote an article in an open text: “Since the pace of development of new energy vehicles exceeds the expectations of the competent authorities, the amount of subsidies will exceed the budget, so the competent authorities have increased Slope ratio idea."
According to the statistics of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market sold 458,000 units in the first 11 months of this year, accumulatively increasing by 60% year-on-year. Moreover, this high growth trend is still intensifying. Among them, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 81,000 units in November this year, a year-on-year growth rate of 87%!
Focused
To subsidize the New Deal or to "make up for the bad"
At the same time as rumors of a reduction in subsidies, a discussion paper on the direction of subsidy adjustment for new energy vehicles has also been circulating on the Internet. According to informed sources, this document was uploaded at a small seminar held in a small area and is in the process of soliciting opinions from all parties.
According to this discussion paper, compared to the 2017 new energy vehicle subsidy program, the most noticeable change in the new subsidy program is that the new energy passenger car will be subdivided into subsidy lines according to the driving range, and the driving range will be New energy vehicles under 150 kilometers are no longer subsidized. According to the discussion paper, the subsidy of 20,000 yuan for a vehicle with an original mileage of 100-150 kilometers will be cancelled. The original 150-200 kilometers of subsidies will be reduced from 3.6 million yuan to 20,000 yuan, and the original 200-250 kilometers will be adjusted to 2.8 yuan. Ten thousand yuan. In addition, the original subsidy of 250-300 kilometers and 44 thousand yuan was reduced to 40,000 yuan. The original subsidies for 300-350 kilometers and 4.4 million yuan were raised to 45,000 yuan. The original subsidy of more than 350 kilometers and 4.4 million yuan was immediately raised. 50,000 yuan.
It can be seen that the subsidy for vehicles in this discussion paper actually rises and falls. The intention of encouraging companies to produce high-quality models with high mileage is quite obvious. According to industry sources, this has a clear correlation with the actual situation of the domestic new energy vehicle market in recent years. Many electric vehicles that are not strong enough have poor practical application, and even do not rule out that some manufacturers are working together. subsidy.
influences
Low-end miniature electric vehicles or will not sell
The Beijing Youth Daily reporter noticed that the idea of ​​dividing the amount of subsidy according to the cruising range would have an impact on the industry. In fact, it can be seen from the recent stock market. After the discussion paper was exposed on the Internet, the lithium battery and passenger car plates in the stock market immediately responded. Shares of Changyuan Group, Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Pioneer Intelligence, and Jinlong Automobiles all fell below the threshold. Even the leading new energy automobile industries such as Yutong Bus and BYD have not been spared, with a drop of around 6%.
Insiders pointed out that the current market in the sale of micro-electric vehicles, most models cruising range of less than 200 kilometers, some of which is less than 150 kilometers, if the network transmission of the New Deal is really implemented, then whether these models are subsidized cancellation The reduction will be greatly affected and may even lead to the situation where low-end mini-vehicles are not sold out. From the sales data of new energy vehicles this year, this miniature electric vehicle actually occupies a considerable proportion.
"From this perspective, the promotion of new energy vehicles by policies has shifted from quantity to quality." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, interpreted this phenomenon as "reducing the overall amount of subsidies by raising technical standards." , so that good products and companies can be encouraged, rather than 'one size fits all'."
In fact, there are precedents for this model of focusing on supporting quality products both domestically and internationally. Previously in China's energy-saving subsidies for home appliances, in the implementation of a period of time so that consumers have a certain understanding of energy-saving appliances, the rapid increase in the subsidy threshold for energy-saving appliances, specifically for "very energy-efficient" home appliances high Amount of subsidies, and no subsidies for "general energy-saving" products. At the time, this kind of subsidy idea called “leader†actually borrowed from Japan’s model of subsidies for energy-saving appliances. Therefore, this "leader" model has experience both at home and abroad.
market
Beijing New Energy Vehicle Sales No Abnormal
According to reports, affected by the rumors of the new policy of subsidies, many places have started clearing inventory of low-end vehicles, especially those that do not reach new thresholds, and even car dealers have rushed to seize the quota. However, the Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from the car dealers in the Beijing area that the current situation is not obvious.
Some car dealers stated that the current demand for new energy vehicles is on the one hand new demand, which is the new wave of users. However, the shakers obviously do not choose low-end vehicles instead of subsidies. No matter how the policy changes, those who arrive will not be able to purchase in advance. Another part of the demand for new energy vehicles is from upgrading, but the current mainstream new energy vehicles is still far from the replacement cycle, even if the replacement will be replaced by higher-end products. Therefore, even if the New Deal raises the subsidy threshold, it will have little impact on the Beijing market.
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