Kan Kaili: 3G user data has moisture, the real wireless broadband is WiFi

Kan Kaili: 3G user data has moisture, the real wireless broadband is WiFi

On January 7, 2010, China's 3G industry passed its first birthday. On January 7, 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued three 3G licenses for China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, a move that marked China's official entry into the 3G era.

To date, it has been more than a year for domestic 3G licensing. According to the data released by the three major operators, there are currently more than 15 million domestic 3G users, which is more than 10 million originally expected by the industry. At the same time, the three major operators completed a total investment of 160.9 billion yuan in 3G networks, built 325,000 base stations, and created a total of more than 670,000 jobs, basically achieving 3G network coverage in major cities and eastern developed regions.

A series of red figures seems to indicate that 3G construction is entering a climax. In 2010, people may usher in a big explosion of 3G. However, when the reporter interviewed Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, he poured a lot of cold water on 3G.

"3G subscriber numbers have moisture"

If you sell one terminal and count as one user, what other users are counted? It would be better to directly count terminal shipments. As for whether the terminal is in the hands of the users, whether it is actually used or not, no one knows.

A year ago, after the 3G licensing, our reporter interviewed Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, when he said that he was not optimistic about China's 3G market. "Hundreds of billions of dollars will not be seen at all." When the reporter interviewed him again, he still held the same attitude. He disagreed with the figures reported by the three operators.

According to the figures given by China Mobile, as of the end of last year, the number of TD-SCDMA network users in the country has exceeded 5 million. "In order to promote 3G, China Mobile has proposed three policies: no number change, no card change, and no registration, which means that from the telecommunications operator side, it is not known whether this number is a 2G user or a 3G user, statistics How did it come out? "

Kan Kaili believes that telecom operators can now count the number of 3G users according to the shipments of mobile phone manufacturers, but this "moisture" is also a lot. "For example, I can count three 3G users by myself." So far, Kan Kaili has a total of three 3G mobile phones, two TD phones donated by others, and now is shelved, and there is a parallel import Nokia E72 (WCDMA Version). "More interestingly, the data released by the three telecom operators separately, and the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology after the sum, are also inconsistent, indicating that the number of 3G users is not credible at all."

"3G has not brought any changes to life"

"Nobody uses it at all, and what impact does it start with?"

When the reporter asked what changes 3G would bring to people's lives, Kan Kaili asked the reporter, did anyone around you use 3G services? "If no one uses it, what changes will it bring?"

"The most fatal problem of 3G development is not technology, but application, demand and market. From the current point of view, these are not available." Kan Kaili has always emphasized that there are no good 3G applications. Some 3G launched by major telecom operators Business, can not attract ordinary people. He still insists that global 3G operations are not successful now. Although NTT Docomo in Japan is profitable, it also uses 3G networks to make money for 2G applications.

What's more, the current 3G technology is difficult to support true Internet applications. "One TD base station can allow 14 users to access the Internet at the same time, one WCDMA can hold more than 30 users, one CDMA 2000 can hold more than 20 users, and the coverage of one base station is at least a few square kilometers, so small How many people can use the capacity to access the Internet at the same time? "Kan Kaili said," the network is definitely blocked. "

At present, the 3G services launched by the three telecom operators are basically similar, such as videophone, multimedia color ring back tone, mobile phone video, mobile phone reader, and wireless broadband Internet access, but the actual application effect is indeed not ideal.

"WiFi is the real wireless broadband available"

"Even with 4G, its wireless bandwidth simply cannot support people to access the Internet concurrently at the same time, and the wireless Internet path through mobile technology will not work."

"The real wireless broadband is WiFi." Kan Kaili said that since China launched the 3G construction, the three telecom operators have different attitudes. China Mobile has money but does not want to invest too much. China Unicom wants to invest but does not have too much money. China Telecom It is "Ming Xiu plank road dark Chen Cang", what we want to develop is WiFi, and WiFi can really realize the popularization of wireless broadband in people's lives.

He calculated an account for the reporter. Beijing has a radius of 1,000 square kilometers within the Sixth Ring Road. According to the calculation of 30 WiFi hotspots per square kilometer, the city can cover only 30,000 hotspots. What is the investment? Even if 10,000 yuan is a hot spot, it is only 300 million yuan. What if the 3G network wants to cover the same range? "3 billion is not enough."

Bandwidth is also the main reason why Kan Kaili is not optimistic about 3G. "The radius of a WiFi hotspot is 100 meters, so within a 300-square-meter radius, people who surf the Internet can share 54M of bandwidth. What about 3G?" The data shows that the current theoretical value of WCDMA HSPA is about 14M per second, and the CDMA 2000 Revb version is 12M about.

Even with the 4G research that has already begun, Kan Kaili is not optimistic. "Even if 4G base stations are built in dense spots, the coverage area is calculated as ten times the radius of the WiFi 1000 meters, then in these three more square kilometers, the total bandwidth of WiFi is 540M, what about 4G? 100M at most."

"Technical principles can't be violated. Just like humans can never create perpetual motion machines, mobile technology can never surpass fixed-line broadband technology," Kan Kaili finally said. "God has not given it enough spectrum."

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