Refrigerator Freezer Export Index: Low prosperity in the three quarters and fears for the four seasons

Chart 1 China's Refrigerator Freezer Export Index in Three Seasons and Seasonal Confidence Index in 2010 Note: Both the prosperity index and the confidence index fall within the range of 0-200, with 100 as the benchmark value. Boom index 100 represents average; greater than 100 represents good operating conditions, the greater the data, the better the representation; less than 100 represents poor operating conditions, and the smaller the data, the worse the representative; the confidence index represents confidence in the next year and is relative to the upper level. In the case of an annual operating situation. 100 represents the same; greater than 100 represents confidence over the previous year. The greater the data, the greater the confidence. Less than 100 represents the lack of confidence. The smaller the data, the less the confidence.


Note: The blue light indicates that the degree of prosperity or confidence is very low; the light blue light indicates a lower degree of prosperity or confidence; the green light indicates the degree of general prosperity or confidence; the orange light indicates a higher degree of confidence or confidence; the red light indicates the degree of prosperity Or confidence is high.

The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products and Industry Online recently released a report on China's Household Appliance Export Index for the third quarter of 2010. The report shows that the prosperity index of the refrigerator freezer in the third quarter of 2010 was 99.2, which was slightly lower than the 0.8 percentage point of the benchmark value, and fell in a generally biased-to-poor range. The rankings of various indicators from the bottom are the total foreign trade volume, trade environment, new export orders, marketing expenses, export prices, profitability, manufacturing cost improvement, and private label ratio. The total foreign trade, trade environment, new export orders, and marketing expenses are higher than the benchmark value, and the remaining indicators are lower than the benchmark value.

The report also showed that in the fourth quarter of the industry, the refrigerator freezer confidence index was 96.7, which was lower than the benchmark value of 3.3 percentage points, and fell in the general bias toward the poorer range. The confidence of each indicator is in descending order of export prices, private label ratios, marketing expenses, new export orders, total foreign trade, profitability, trade environment, and manufacturing cost. Among them, the export prices, private brand ratios, and marketing expenses are higher than the benchmark values, and the remaining indicators are lower than the benchmark values.

Low economic conditions in the third quarter After the global economy experienced a rapid rebound in the first quarter of 2010, the second quarter was affected by the European debt crisis, underemployment and Other factors. The growth rate slowed in the third quarter, and this slowing trend was not export-oriented. The performance of the advanced economies is even more pronounced. As China’s refrigerator exports are mainly concentrated in developed economies such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, the slow economic growth and reduced demand in these countries and regions have inhibited China’s export growth to a certain extent, and refrigerator exports have decreased compared with the second quarter, but Last year, the base figure was relatively low. The growth in total foreign trade in the third quarter was still quite significant. However, due to a certain increase in the prices of certain raw materials such as copper, aluminum, and steel, the manufacturing costs increased, while the export prices were even lower than those in the first half of the year. A certain degree of growth, but in the company's view is generally slightly worse, resulting in the third quarter profitability is also a general deviation.

Judging from the performance of domestic and foreign brands, domestic brands have a slightly higher degree of prosperity than foreign investment, with a difference of 0.71 percentage points. In terms of export scale, the first-tier companies have the highest degree of prosperity, which is 10.63 percentage points higher than the benchmark value. The second-tier companies have the second-highest degree of prosperity, which is 2.92 percentage points higher than the benchmark value. The third-tier companies are the lowest, which is lower than the benchmark value of 10.68 percentage points. From this perspective, in the current trading environment, the first and second-tier companies are more adaptable to the environment, and the third-tier companies are slightly impaired by various factors such as the size of the company and the management system. Therefore, such polarization has emerged. the trend of.

Four Seasons Confidence is Worried Under the influence of factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi in the fourth quarter of 2010, companies believe that there will be a significant increase in export prices. Most companies also believe that new export orders will increase by a certain percentage year-on-year, but this is based on last year's base number. On a lower basis, most of the companies are not satisfied with the new export orders. Similarly, in the fourth quarter, we all think that the year-on-year growth will have an increase year-on-year, but the profits are declining. Therefore, for the industry's future in the fourth quarter, companies Confidence is worrying.

Judging from the performance of domestic and foreign brands, the foreign brand's letter is slightly higher than domestic capital, which is 11.55 percentage points higher. In terms of export scale, the confidence of the first-tier companies was slightly stronger than the benchmark value of 1.88 percentage points. The confidence of the third-tier companies was slightly stronger than that of the second-tier, 1.36 percentage points higher than the benchmark value, and the confidence of the second-tier companies was the worst, lower than the reference value of 19.58 percentage points. . For the fourth quarter, the confidence of all companies is not very strong, but large companies have strong financial support, plus some fixed customer orders, so not worried about the future, many small businesses this year's focus on the domestic market is not exported, so although The market outlook is not optimistic, but it is not very much concerned. In addition, small companies use their own flexible system, and low prices have also made certain new orders. On the contrary, second-tier companies have a particularly strong sense of uncertainty about the future uncertain trading environment. The worst confidence.

The strong outlook for the market through the Canton Fair can be seen, for the market outlook, companies wait and see attitude is strong, mainly due to the recent pressure of renminbi appreciation caused companies to take new orders when the price is more cautious, most companies said they would wait for the renminbi to stabilize the dollar Only consider giving appropriate prices, and many fixed customer orders are usually at the end of the year or at the beginning of the year, so there will probably be a conclusion by that time. In addition, for future international environmental companies, most believe that in addition to the pressure of appreciation of the renminbi, there are too many uncertainties such as price fluctuations in bulk raw materials, trade barriers in various countries, and technical barriers. Although orders and trade volumes may continue to increase, profits are not necessarily better than financial factors. The time of the crisis is better, and the competitiveness of new refrigerator manufacturing bases in Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil is increasing, and companies are facing greater pressure. All the pressures allow Chinese companies to focus on increasing value-added products and strengthen technological innovation and brand output. Therefore, in terms of self-owned brands, it can be seen that the private-owned brand rate of some companies has increased, but most companies still rely on OEMs. OEM-based.