With the intensification of pollution in the social environment, the voice of new energy is getting higher and higher, and the national government is extremely encouraging the implementation of this program, so new energy vehicles have always been promising. With the series of policies issued by the government, new energy vehicles have been vigorously developed.
China's development of new energy vehicles has adopted subsidy policy measures, so industry companies are very concerned about subsidy policies. At present, there are quite a few good people who have proposed different subsidies for the subsidized version on the Internet. Many of their peers mistakenly believe that these are the 2018 subsidy policy adjustment programs, which is unsettling. Coupled with some new media, they said that they have authoritative information, saying that the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy policy will soon be unveiled. There are also many people who question these hype and have the suspicion of the decision of the relevant departments.
The "Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020 (Cai Jian [2015] No. 134)", the retreat node should be 2019, and the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2018 will not Going back again. However, in the notice, there is a saying "The implementation period of this policy is 2016-2020. The four ministries and commissions will adjust the subsidy policy according to factors such as technological progress, industrial development, scale of application and cost change, etc." A certain amount of space. The author understands that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is not used for speculation! The speculation subsidy policy is extremely unfavorable to the development of the industry.
The following is an introduction to the introduction of common sense in policy formulation and the adjustment trend of new energy vehicle subsidy policies for peer reference.
1. What is policy and principles?It refers to the goal of the struggle, the principle of action to be followed, the clear task of completion, the mode of work to be carried out, the general methods of implementation, and specific measures that should be achieved by the state's political organs in an authoritative and standardized manner within a certain historical period. There are five principles in its formulation: system principles, coordination principles, feasible principles, legal principles, and democratic participation principles.
(Note: The policy is a document of the state power organs, which can be interpreted and cannot be hyped.)
Second, the nature of new energy vehicle subsidy policyThe new energy vehicle subsidy policy is part of the industrial development policy. Industrial development policy refers to the realization of certain factors around the development of the industry? A general term for a series of specific policies developed by various means using industrial development goals. Industrial development policy and? Industrial structure policy,? What is the common structure of industrial organization policies? Industrial policy system.
(Note: The new energy vehicle subsidy policy is to push China to become a car power. Once the policy is promulgated, it will not discuss its right or wrong, but only analyze its strength and weakness.)
Third, the policy development processPolicy formulation is a relatively standardized procedure, which generally includes the identification and definition of policy issues, the determination of policy agendas, policy planning, and legalization of policies. Each step contains a number of specific links.
(Note: At the level of the national ministries and commissions, it is necessary to complete these processes. It usually takes more than 6 months, especially the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. It involves more stakeholders and the cycle will be longer.)
Fourth, the current version of the media is a few suggestions.The current version of the network process is a draft proposal, not a formal project version of the authority. The official project version, with the version number, the front and back versions are logically linked to each other, and the versions are a progressive relationship. The version of a formal project that has been disciplined before it is officially announced must be kept confidential and cannot be flown out to the network. It can be said that the current popular version of the Internet is unreliable. It is a waste of time and effort to discuss and interpret these solutions. Many media are keen to report that these proposals have the suspicion of increasing the click-through rate of their websites.
Industrial policy is the lifeline of industrial development. The preparation of the official project policy version is subject to strict procedures, especially the documents to be signed by the national ministries and commissions, and the main administrative leaders of the department are to be issued. How to publish? Who will release it? When is the release? There are strict requirements.
(Note: If you understand the above, you know how to deal with the different versions of the so-called subsidy policy adjustments that the network circulates.)
V. Correct understanding of the key points of the current subsidy policy document is the keyThe current subsidy policy document is “Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020 (Cai Jian [2015] No. 134)â€, in accordance with the “Guiding Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†( Guobofa [2014] No. 35) and other documents require that the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission (four ministries) will continue to implement the new energy vehicle promotion and application subsidy policy in 2016-2020. The main points of understanding are as follows:
1 Document level: Documents issued by the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Development and Reform Commission (referred to as four ministries).
2 aging: 2016-2020 is 5 years.
3 subsidy standard declining time node arrangement:
i) The 2016 new energy vehicle subsidy standards are shown in Annex 1 (this standard has been regressed in the 2015 subsidy standard).
Ii) In 2017-2020, the subsidy standards for other vehicles except for fuel cell vehicles will be appropriately degraded. Among them, the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will be reduced by 20% from the 2016 level (the second time of the declining time node), and the subsidy for 2019-2020 The standard fell by 40% on the basis of 2016 (the third time to retreat).
According to the document, policy subsidies are three criteria during the five-year period:
a) The 2016 subsidy standard is the benchmark version, and the implementation period is 1 year;
b) The subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the implementation period will be 2 years;
c) The subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will be reduced by 40% from 2016 and the implementation period will be 2 years;
Iii) Implementation period and other
The implementation period of this policy is 2016-2020. The four ministries will adjust the subsidy policy according to factors such as: i) technological progress; ii) industrial development; iii) promotion of application scale; iv) cost changes and other factors.
(Note: there are other conditions for timely adjustment of subsidies, which are not related to subjective factors)
6. Basis, factors, necessity and technical feasibility analysis of the subsidy policy in 20181) The 2018 subsidy policy is no longer a reversal is a high probability event. The reason is that the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will fall by 20% from 2016. If you want to go back down, how much will you retreat based on the 2017 subsidy standard? No basis.
2) If the subsidy policy of 2018 is adjusted even if it is adjusted, it will not be a retreat. The retreat is a global arrangement, and the adjustment is partial.
3) How will the subsidy policy be adjusted in 2018?
1 Analysis of technological progress factors: In 2017, new energy vehicle technology has made progress, but it is not too obvious;
2 Analysis of industrial development factors: The policy environment has improved significantly in 2017, and other development factors have changed somewhat, but they are not obvious;
3 Analysis of the scale of promotion and application: In 2017, the scale of production and sales was around 700,000, and the growth rate of scale dropped significantly. In 2017, the scale of production and sales increased, but it did not provide strong guarantee for the expansion of 2018. To achieve the goal of 2 million production and sales scale in 2020, 2018 is a crucial year;
4 Analysis of factors such as cost changes: The main cost of new energy vehicles is the cost of power batteries, and the subsidies are mainly for power costs. The scale of new energy buses is limited. In 2017 and 2018, the sales scale is above 100,000. For the sake of high safety, lithium iron phosphate and lithium titanate batteries are still the mainstream, and their specific energy increase cannot be too high, namely lithium iron phosphate. The price of lithium titanate is not large; the ternary battery has a certain room for improvement, mainly used for electric passenger cars, but the current electric passenger car is still in the growth period, the cost pressure is large; the double-point policy implementation period is postponed, The development of electric passenger cars is weak.
In summary, there is no sufficient reason for the subsidy policy to fall back in 2018; the subsidy policy will be adjusted in 2018, and the analysis of the four factors will not see the necessity of adjustment.
VII. Risk analysis of subsidy policy retreating (adjustment) in 2018The above analysis of the cause of the retreat (adjustment) of the subsidy policy in 2018, the basic conclusion is:
It is unlikely that the subsidy policy will be resurfaced in 12018;
The fine adjustment of the subsidy policy in 22018 cannot be said to have no absolute possibility;
The following is an analysis of the risks of the 2018 subsidy policy adjustment:
12017 is the first year of 20% decline on the basis of the 2016 subsidy standard, and all the announcements will be re-declared; if the subsidy policy is adjusted in 2018, many vehicle announcements must be re-declared. In this way, it is expected that there will be basically no cars to sell in the first half of 2018, and the production and sales scale of more than 1 million vehicles will be completed in the second half of the year.
2 If the subsidy policy is adjusted in 2018, is that plan scientific and reasonable? It is difficult to argue, and it is already December.
3 If the subsidy policy is adjusted in 2018, it can only be fine-tuned. What is the significance of fine-tuning? How big is it?
The 42019 subsidy policy is re-arranging. If it is going to retreat one year ahead of 2018, will it be back in 2019? The fine-tuning of the situation cannot be a crisis. The overall plan is also the basic principle.
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