Home appliance market returns to normal in the second half to guard against overcapacity

From the perspective of the Chinese home appliance market in the first five months of this year, the market has gradually returned to normal from the ultra-fast growth of the past year. According to estimates of Zhong Yi Kang Company, from January to May 2011, the sales volume of China's home appliance market was 517.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%.

First-tier market generally declines Group competition becomes clear

The growth of markets at different levels is uneven, with general sales in the primary market declining.

Driven by 3G mobile phones and smart phones, the mobile phone market is in a state of high growth, an increase of 29% over the same period of last year. The mobile phone is the largest product in the home appliance consumer market. There are two other high-growth products in the market: one is air-conditioning and the other is laptop. The market share of the two is also relatively large. The air conditioner market share is 11%, the growth rate is 28%, and the market share of notebook computers is 8.2%, with a growth rate of 29.7%.

Compared with the above products, the growth rate of traditional large appliances, such as color TVs, refrigerators and washing machines, is in a relatively stable state, and the market growth rate is in single digits. There is also a category of products such as kitchen appliances, such as range hoods, stoves and other products. Due to close contact with housing sales and greater impact by the real estate industry, its growth situation is not too optimistic. From the perspective of market growth in the first five months, different products showed different growth trends: large-scale communication and rapid growth; and the growth rate of traditional consumer electronics was not high.

In the first half of the year, the market has a unique feature that is closely related to the real estate market, and also related to the development stage of home appliance consumption in different levels of the market. The sources of demand growth in the first half of the year were mainly secondary and tertiary markets. Taking color TV as an example, from January to May, the primary market was negative growth, which was a year-on-year decline of 8.7%; secondary market growth was 7.6%; tertiary market growth was 9.3%; and the tertiary market was 8.5%. The air-conditioning market grew by 21.9%, the primary market grew by 11.9%, the secondary market increased by 33.6%, and the tertiary market increased by 39.2%. This is a pattern of rapid growth. The primary and secondary markets of the refrigerators are all negative growth. The primary market is down by 0.5%, the secondary market is up by 11.1%, the tertiary market is up by 9%, and the secondary market is down by 0.4%. The overall growth rate of washing machines is 5%, the secondary market is up 11.5%, the tertiary market is up 11.2%, and the primary market is down 2.8%. From the point of view of the growth of different levels of markets, uneven cooling and heating, and the general decline in sales in the primary market, is an important feature of the market in the first half of the year.

In addition, the trend of group competition became more clear in the first half of the year. In the current Chinese market, these three groups of Haier, Hisense, and the United States have relatively complete products. Others are Samsung, Panasonic, Bossi, Changhong, TCL and other home appliance groups, which have achieved a certain market position at each product level. The Chinese home appliance market is gradually divided by these home appliance groups.

Multi-party promotion of product consumption upgrade

The general trend in the consumer market is consumption escalation, which is historically inevitable.

The current general trend of the consumer market is consumption escalation. This consumption upgrade can be said to be historically inevitable. First, in terms of the income of consumers, the disposable income of urban and rural consumers has continued to increase over the past few years. Judging from the ownership of home appliances, the penetration rate of many home appliances in the city has already reached 100%; in rural areas, the number of home appliances going to the countryside in previous years has been rapidly increasing. The consumption of home appliances in urban and rural areas in China has entered the buying stage of upgrading and replacement from the original popularity stage.

From the perspective of industrial technological progress, flat-panel TVs are replacing CRT TVs. Open-door, three-door, and multi-door refrigerators are replacing alternative two-door refrigerators. The proportion of drum washing machines in the washing machine market continues to rise. New technologies and higher-end products also provide consumers with more options for upgrading their needs. The joint promotion of the government, manufacturers and consumers has also provided strong impetus for the consumption upgrade of home appliances.

Specifically, the proportion of LED flat-panel TVs in the urban market has exceeded 50%, an increase of 367.1% year-on-year. Correspondingly, the share of CRT TVs that are about to exit the market is only 0.3%, and the market sales have dropped 70.3% year-on-year. CCFL LCD The share of television has dropped to 36.7%, down 55.5% year-on-year. In terms of 3D TV, "3D functionalization, TV 3D" has become the mainstream trend. TV is a technology-driven product, and technological innovation is very fast. One year after the LCD TV was listed, it accounted for 0.008% of the market share. The market share of the 3D TV market reached 2.55% a year. This shows that the promotion of new technology in the TV market is very fast. For the enterprise, the market opportunity is fleeting.

In the mobile phone market, 3G smart phones and smartphones account for a very high percentage of the market, and they are growing rapidly. The current share of smart phones reached 62.8%, and the market share of non-smart phones was 37.2%. Smartphone sales increased by 105% year-on-year, while non-smart phone sales decreased by 22.1% year-on-year. 3G and intelligence are the main reasons for the rapid increase in the share of high-end products in the mobile phone market.

In the refrigerator market, the share of the two-door refrigerator in the urban market has fallen below 40%. In the first five months of this year, the market share of open, multi-door and three-door refrigerators has exceeded 60%. With the expansion of market size and advances in product technology, the average retail prices of three-door, multi-door, and side-by-side refrigerators are also falling.

In the washing machine market, the market share of drum washing machines in the city is already close to 45%, the market share of turbine washing machines is close to 50%, and the traditional twin-cylinder washing machines are on the verge of quitting the market in the city. Little Swan, Sanyo, Midea and other companies launched some drum washing machines under 2,000 yuan. This type of product was put on the market in large quantities, resulting in heavy demand in the low-end market, affecting the mid-range market, but it did not affect the high-end market above 6,000 yuan. . In the washing machine market, the pattern of consumer polarization is very clear.

Opportunities, Challenges and Coexistence of Market Growth

The competition in the home appliance market in the second half of the year will be even fiercer. One reason is overcapacity.

On the whole, the home appliance market in 2011 has both opportunities and challenges.

The competition in the home appliance market in the second half of the year will be even fiercer. One reason is overcapacity. The domestic panel gradually achieved mass production, and the first two years of home appliances to the countryside led to large-scale growth in market demand, so that the production capacity of white goods has expanded dramatically. Taking the refrigerator as an example, the market demand will also be about 40 million units, but the total production capacity will greatly exceed the actual market demand. This is the grim situation facing the home appliance market in the second half of the year.

The favorable aspect is that China's macroeconomic conditions are relatively stable. According to the past few years, the growth of the household appliance industry is highly related to the overall macro-environment.

Judging from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the most closely related to the household appliance market is the expansion of domestic demand policies, which will help increase the residents’ income and, correspondingly, the consumer’s purchasing power, thus stimulating the growth of the home appliance consumer market. In addition, as China's urbanization rate increases, more and more people have stronger spending power and more consumer demand. It is estimated that by 2015, the urbanization rate in China will be close to 60%, which will provide the market with more and more high purchasing power consumers.

The unfavorable factor is real estate. The current housing prices are at a very high level and market sales are sluggish. From this perspective, the consumption of household appliances in the primary market next year is not optimistic and will face great pressure. Another unfavorable factor is that after several years of promotion of home appliances to the countryside, the consumption potential in rural areas has been tapped.

Under the combined effects of the above factors, the scale of domestic major household appliance market consumption in 2011 is expected to be as follows: mobile phones will grow by more than 10% year-on-year, computers will increase by 7.8%, color TVs will increase by 7.3%, air-conditioning will increase by 9.0%, and refrigerators will grow. 9.3%, the entire market scale is close to 200 billion yuan, and the growth rate exceeds 10%.

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