“Although we predict that the overall LED output value will decline by 3.7% in 2009, we believe that the high-brightness HB LED market will not be affected by this and will continue to maintain high growth.†Robert Steel e, Optoelectronics Director of Strategies Unlimited, said on SSLCHINA In 2008, the global high-brightness LED market grew by 11% compared with 2007, with an output value of US$5.1 billion. From US$800 million in 1999 to US$5.1 billion in 2008, the high-brightness LED market expanded by 6.2 times in 10 years. See Figure 1 The growth trajectory is strictly in line with linear development.
The impact of the global economic recession cannot be ignored
In the 2008 high-brightness LED market segment, mobile applications accounted for 42%, logo/display applications accounted for 17%, automotive applications accounted for 15%, lighting applications accounted for 10%, signal applications accounted for 1%, and the rest accounted for 16%. .
Robert Steele pointed out that the impact of the global economic recession on the high-brightness LED market cannot be ignored. In 2009, many high-brightness LED end users will be greatly affected and there will be a big recession. “Sales in cars, mobile phones and other products are falling. And similar to outdoor video displays, the market for LCD TVs and smart phones is slowing.â€
Take the mobile market as an example. As mobile phones are now in mature markets and prices are falling, the LED output value for the mobile phone market continues to decline. “We expect the mobile phone market to decline by 10% in 2009.†However, in other mobile application markets. Some areas continue to grow, such as smart phones, laptops, MP3s, GPS, and digital photo frames.
The auto market is even more recession. It is expected that the US/Canada, Japan and European auto markets will decline by 29% in 2009, while the LED logo and display market will behave normally, but the LED full-color logo growth rate has started to decline from a few years ago. The sports market is beginning to show signs of saturation, while the electronic bulletin board market is affected by the economic downturn. Factors that will help display applications in the future include the use of LED backlights on LCD TVs and monitors, the use of LED light sources in rear projection televisions, and the use of LED light sources in pocket projectors. “The Pico projector is currently available, but it has had little impact on the entire market in 2009.â€
Lighting and LCD backlighting will be the two driving forces in the high-brightness LED market
Robert Steele pointed out that although the traditional application market for bright LEDs, such as automotive lighting, mobile phones and outdoor large-screen display markets, is threatened by a sharp contraction, it continues to grow strongly in other emerging applications, such as laptops. And the backlighting application of TV, in addition, the LED lighting market is also growing, although the growth rate is slightly slower than before.
Robert Steele believes that lighting and LCD backlight applications will be the key drivers for the industry's recovery in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 24%. It is estimated that by 2013, the global high-brightness LED market will reach $14.9 billion.
LED backlighting has been widely used in notebook computers. The penetration rate in 2007 was 3.5%. In 2008, the penetration rate reached 12%. In 2009, it is expected to exceed 50%. Almost all major manufacturers including Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Acer, and Apple have turned to LED backlights. In recent years, emerging netbooks have all adopted LED backlights.
In 2009, LED continued to expand its penetration rate in niche and general lighting, which increased by 55% in 2008 and is expected to increase by 15% in 2009 due to the impact of the economic downturn.
However, the LED lighting market is still a highly fragmented market, including many sub-application markets. “The biggest application of LED lighting is architectural lighting, which accounts for 41% of the total.†It should be noted that many applications still use color (RGB) lighting, but now white light general lighting applications have begun to increase, "white LEDs are about 58% of the LED lighting market."
The fastest growing areas of lighting in 2009 included replacement lamps, outdoor lighting, retail lighting, and commercial/industrial lighting. However, these markets account for only 28% of the LED lighting market.
Steele said that there are many new companies planning to enter the LED lighting market, and many established lighting companies have plans to enter the LED market. Standards are also being actively developed, and LED lamps and light engines are becoming more and more elegant. These are all positive factors, but it is important to note that “this industry is still full of low-quality and low-quality LED lamps.â€
At present, there are more than 500 lighting terminal or lighting manufacturers in the United States, Europe and Asia (outside China), and 3,500 in China. The current status of the LED lighting market is small output, high cost, and uneven product quality.
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