After the coal price limit order was implemented on December 1, the coal price could fall into the focus of thermal power plants and all walks of life under the intervention of the National Development and Reform Commission.
From the first week after the limit price, the coal price of the 5500 kcal was down 10-15 yuan/ton, but there was still a 40 yuan reduction pressure from the price limit of 800 yuan/ton.
However, in the face of the downside, some experts and thermal power plants expressed concern, whether the reduced price will rebound, whether the price will be transferred to other coal expenditures in a disguised form “price increaseâ€, and whether or not the price limit will trigger a black market transaction. It also became a concern of all parties.
The decline was due to the implementation of the National Development and Reform Commission's limit order from December 1st onwards. From January 1, 2012, Qinhuangdao Port, Huanghua Port, Tianjin Port, Jingtang Port, Guotou Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, Yingkou Port, Jinzhou The maximum price of thermal coal for 5,500 kcal in Hong Kong and Dalian Port shall not exceed 800 yuan per ton, and the other thermal value coal closing price shall be converted according to the 5500 kcal limit price standard.
This means that the maximum price of coal for 5,500 kcal in Qinhuangdao ports and other ports must not exceed 800 yuan/ton. As to whether the limit price order can be implemented after the introduction of the price limit, the first week's coal market has become the focus of attention.
"The on-grid tariff has risen by more than 2 points, which is good for our thermal power plants, but we are more concerned about whether the price of coal can be brought down. If the price of coal also goes up, then this part of the rising electricity price will have no meaning." The owner of a local power plant in Datang expressed this concern to the reporter.
It should be said that how the first week's coal prices change is crucial to thermal power companies. Because it is not the first time that the price ceiling for coal is imposed on the market, the same intervention policy occurred in 2008 as well.
On June 19, 2008 and July 23, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission issued two consecutive articles to temporarily intervene in the price of coal for power generation, including key contracts for coal and non-key contract coal, and its ore prices were all based on 2008. 6 The actual settlement price on the 19th is the maximum price.
"After June 19, 2008, within a short period of one month, Datong's 5,500 kcal kilowatt-hour coal pit price jumped from 495 yuan / ton to 585 yuan / ton, and Qinhuangdao port 5,500 kcal coal price was closed by 6. On the 23rd of the month, it was 850 yuan/ton, which quickly rose to 980 yuan/ton on July 21. Qin Bodao Coal Market Information Center Zeng Bo told this reporter.
However, from the first week of data after this year's limit order, coal prices appear a downward trend. Taking the Qinhuangdao Port 5,500 kcal calorific steam coal price as an example, according to data from the Coalnet Information Research Center, the price limit price dropped by around RMB 10 from the previous week to RMB 830-840/ton, compared with the Datong region. The 5500, 5800, and 6000 kcal thermal coal prices also fell by an average of RMB 15/t in the week ended December 8.
At the same time, from the Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index, the index's decline last week expanded to 7 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared with the previous period.
"There is basically no suspense in the price downwards. From the buyer's point of view, the expectation of 800 yuan/ton will promote wait-and-see sentiment. At the same time, for the seller's market, there are more than half a month before the limit order becomes effective, and the selling atmosphere is strong." Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said.
The parties concerned expressed their concern that after the price limit order, they fell to become the key word for coal power. From the current status of domestic coal upstream and downstream operations, the price of coal in the Inner Mongolia region also fell by 5-20 yuan, supporting the port coal to some extent. The downward price.†Zeng Bo said that from the perspective of the operation of the entire domestic coal market, the reduction of port coal prices has become a necessity, and the controversy may be more concentrated in the pure market economy, 5500 kcal coal prices will be the port. In the current price of around 840 yuan, the drop of 40 yuan or 40 yuan under policy intervention has been honored.
According to Zeng Bo, just as the two coal price ceilings in June and July 2008, the price did not drop back. "Because the international market oil price and coal price were still in the rising stage, the speculative enthusiasm of the market was rising. The limit price gave rise to black market transactions and did not restrain the rise in coal prices," Zeng Bo said.
In other words, the limit order is likely to result in a market without price, which will lead to black market transactions. This is what the thermal power plant is worried about.
A head of the fuel purchasing department of the Southern Thermal Power Plant told the reporter that “the thermal power companies now have two possibilities. One is to adjust the price of electricity, and the coal continues to rise. Another kind of possibility is that the port closing price is down. Businesses are likely to pass the drop in profits to other costs or directly to the terminal price increase price, leading to a reduction in the closing price.
Not only that, the above-mentioned head of the purchasing department also stated that there is no limit to the prices of Qiyun and Huoyun, and it is impossible to block up the price of coal from all aspects and aspects.
"The highest price limit for electric coal is likely to force coal companies, traders, and power companies to evade supervision through unconventional channels," Zeng Bo said.
The same is true for contract coal. Zeng Bo said that the National Development and Reform Commission had explicitly requested at the end of 2010 that in 2011 the key contract coal price should remain unchanged at 2010 levels, and it must not increase prices in any form, that is, it still maintains a price of 520 yuan per ton. After a 5% increase in 2012, the price of key contract coal was 546 yuan per ton.
"Contract coal is relatively good, but for contract coal, the NDRC needs to intervene not only the price, but the cash, the price is low, and it is not at all profitable," said the power plant's purchasing director.
Next, next year's key coal ordering meeting will begin again and the coal power game will be upgraded again.
From the first week after the limit price, the coal price of the 5500 kcal was down 10-15 yuan/ton, but there was still a 40 yuan reduction pressure from the price limit of 800 yuan/ton.
However, in the face of the downside, some experts and thermal power plants expressed concern, whether the reduced price will rebound, whether the price will be transferred to other coal expenditures in a disguised form “price increaseâ€, and whether or not the price limit will trigger a black market transaction. It also became a concern of all parties.
The decline was due to the implementation of the National Development and Reform Commission's limit order from December 1st onwards. From January 1, 2012, Qinhuangdao Port, Huanghua Port, Tianjin Port, Jingtang Port, Guotou Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, Yingkou Port, Jinzhou The maximum price of thermal coal for 5,500 kcal in Hong Kong and Dalian Port shall not exceed 800 yuan per ton, and the other thermal value coal closing price shall be converted according to the 5500 kcal limit price standard.
This means that the maximum price of coal for 5,500 kcal in Qinhuangdao ports and other ports must not exceed 800 yuan/ton. As to whether the limit price order can be implemented after the introduction of the price limit, the first week's coal market has become the focus of attention.
"The on-grid tariff has risen by more than 2 points, which is good for our thermal power plants, but we are more concerned about whether the price of coal can be brought down. If the price of coal also goes up, then this part of the rising electricity price will have no meaning." The owner of a local power plant in Datang expressed this concern to the reporter.
It should be said that how the first week's coal prices change is crucial to thermal power companies. Because it is not the first time that the price ceiling for coal is imposed on the market, the same intervention policy occurred in 2008 as well.
On June 19, 2008 and July 23, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission issued two consecutive articles to temporarily intervene in the price of coal for power generation, including key contracts for coal and non-key contract coal, and its ore prices were all based on 2008. 6 The actual settlement price on the 19th is the maximum price.
"After June 19, 2008, within a short period of one month, Datong's 5,500 kcal kilowatt-hour coal pit price jumped from 495 yuan / ton to 585 yuan / ton, and Qinhuangdao port 5,500 kcal coal price was closed by 6. On the 23rd of the month, it was 850 yuan/ton, which quickly rose to 980 yuan/ton on July 21. Qin Bodao Coal Market Information Center Zeng Bo told this reporter.
However, from the first week of data after this year's limit order, coal prices appear a downward trend. Taking the Qinhuangdao Port 5,500 kcal calorific steam coal price as an example, according to data from the Coalnet Information Research Center, the price limit price dropped by around RMB 10 from the previous week to RMB 830-840/ton, compared with the Datong region. The 5500, 5800, and 6000 kcal thermal coal prices also fell by an average of RMB 15/t in the week ended December 8.
At the same time, from the Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index, the index's decline last week expanded to 7 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared with the previous period.
"There is basically no suspense in the price downwards. From the buyer's point of view, the expectation of 800 yuan/ton will promote wait-and-see sentiment. At the same time, for the seller's market, there are more than half a month before the limit order becomes effective, and the selling atmosphere is strong." Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said.
The parties concerned expressed their concern that after the price limit order, they fell to become the key word for coal power. From the current status of domestic coal upstream and downstream operations, the price of coal in the Inner Mongolia region also fell by 5-20 yuan, supporting the port coal to some extent. The downward price.†Zeng Bo said that from the perspective of the operation of the entire domestic coal market, the reduction of port coal prices has become a necessity, and the controversy may be more concentrated in the pure market economy, 5500 kcal coal prices will be the port. In the current price of around 840 yuan, the drop of 40 yuan or 40 yuan under policy intervention has been honored.
According to Zeng Bo, just as the two coal price ceilings in June and July 2008, the price did not drop back. "Because the international market oil price and coal price were still in the rising stage, the speculative enthusiasm of the market was rising. The limit price gave rise to black market transactions and did not restrain the rise in coal prices," Zeng Bo said.
In other words, the limit order is likely to result in a market without price, which will lead to black market transactions. This is what the thermal power plant is worried about.
A head of the fuel purchasing department of the Southern Thermal Power Plant told the reporter that “the thermal power companies now have two possibilities. One is to adjust the price of electricity, and the coal continues to rise. Another kind of possibility is that the port closing price is down. Businesses are likely to pass the drop in profits to other costs or directly to the terminal price increase price, leading to a reduction in the closing price.
Not only that, the above-mentioned head of the purchasing department also stated that there is no limit to the prices of Qiyun and Huoyun, and it is impossible to block up the price of coal from all aspects and aspects.
"The highest price limit for electric coal is likely to force coal companies, traders, and power companies to evade supervision through unconventional channels," Zeng Bo said.
The same is true for contract coal. Zeng Bo said that the National Development and Reform Commission had explicitly requested at the end of 2010 that in 2011 the key contract coal price should remain unchanged at 2010 levels, and it must not increase prices in any form, that is, it still maintains a price of 520 yuan per ton. After a 5% increase in 2012, the price of key contract coal was 546 yuan per ton.
"Contract coal is relatively good, but for contract coal, the NDRC needs to intervene not only the price, but the cash, the price is low, and it is not at all profitable," said the power plant's purchasing director.
Next, next year's key coal ordering meeting will begin again and the coal power game will be upgraded again.
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