When Nokia, Blackberry, and Motorola are forced to sell or struggle in the smartphone market, the mobile phone chips closely related to the smartphone industry are not.
Recently, the news that Broadcom has withdrawn from the mobile phone chip (mobile phone baseband chip) market once again shows us the fierce and cruel competition in the smart phone industry. In fact, as early as Broadcom, fierce competition has forced many companies to opt out of the mobile phone baseband chip market, such as Texas Instruments Inc., ST Microelectronics NV, Ericsson and NVIDIA. With the intensification of competition, there will be a fate of related manufacturers in the future to escape the mobile phone chip market. The general trend has gone, and the only thing left is a sigh.
Coincidentally, at the same time that Broadcom lost its mobile phone chip, Huawei issued a high-profile release of the world's first 8-core LTE Cat6 mobile phone chip Kirin 920, which was highly praised by the industry. Behind this one-in-one, what reflects the survival and development model of the mobile phone chip industry? Who is likely to survive or even develop in the future mobile phone chip market?
As we all know, the chip industry (not only mobile phone chips), technology, scale, and capital are the three elements of its survival and development. These features have been proven in the largest traditional PC chip industry. In the early and middle stages of AMD's PC market and Intel competition, AMD could be said to be in a difficult position, but it was ultimately limited by the shortcomings of scale and capital, and was greatly surpassed by Intel. And today's mobile phone chip market is not the case.
Judging from the current competitive landscape of the mobile phone chip market, only the Qualcomm is the only three elements. Technically, Qualcomm far exceeds its competitors in terms of APs that are closely related to mobile phone chips, baseband chips, and important SoC integration capabilities. On a scale, Qualcomm currently has market share in the AP and baseband chip markets. Revenue ranks first and is far ahead of the competition. For example, in the baseband chip market, the latest report from Strategy AnalyTIcs, an information technology market research organization, shows that Qualcomm ranks first in the market with 66% revenue. MediaTek and Intel rank second and third with 12% and 7% respectively. In the 2013 ranking of the world's top 25 fabless IC design companies released by IC Insights, Qualcomm topped the list with US$17.2 billion in annual revenue, ranking the second Broadcom with US$8.219 billion. More than 2 times. Since it has the leading technology and scale, capital (whether it is the previous or subsequent R&D investment) is naturally not a problem, and will continue to form a positive cyclical effect of technology, scale and capital.
Next, let's take a look at the so-called Qualcomm's largest rival, MediaTek (MTK). Since the 2G era, MediaTek has formed its rooted Turnkey model of its existence and development – ​​a “turnkey†“engineering model†that points to the overall solution provided by the customer. This model is popular among small and medium-sized mobile phone manufacturers because of its low price. Entering the 3G era, this model is still the mode that MediaTek relies on, but the only difference is that the mobile phone chip industry leader Qualcomm has also begun to exert a similar model, namely Qualcomm Reference Design (Qualcomm Reference Design) ). Qualcomm has covered this pattern of high, medium and low end to help customers reduce their design time. According to Qualcomm's explanation, the future Qualcomm mobile phone chip should be fully QRD.
Although Qualcomm is in the low-end market, its QRD's price/performance ratio may not exceed MediaTek's Turnkey (after all, this is the headhunting skills of MediaTek from the 2G era), but due to the comprehensive nature of Qualcomm's QRD, and smartphone manufacturers have improved Revenue and profit needs (will use more high-end QRD solutions), the advantage of Qualcomm's QRD model in the high-end will inevitably spread the pressure to the low-end market, and then MediaTek can only deal with the cost-effectiveness of the Turnkey model. But in this way, its revenue and profits will be under greater pressure than before. Therefore, to a certain extent, MediaTek's future depends on how Qualcomm will develop its own QRD model in the future, which means that half of MediaTek's future fate is in the hands of rival Qualcomm. However, from a certain point of view in the future, MediaTek's advantage in scale will still give it a place in the smartphone market.
Except for Qualcomm and MediaTek, we regret that we do not have the space for a third company to survive in the open ARM architecture mobile phone chip market. Of course, in addition to Qualcomm and MediaTek chips, there is also a type of mobile phone chip or enterprise that has the potential to survive, that is, self-sufficient Apple, Samsung and HiSilicon.
If we still measure by three factors, Apple has already proved its technical strength in mobile phone chips by launching the industry's first 64-bit A7 mobile phone chip. As for the scale, its more than 100 million iPhones and tens of millions of iPads each year are enough to support its survival and development. When it comes to funds, we still use it, you know.
Looking at Samsung, to be precise, Samsung’s mobile phone is not purely self-sufficient, because in addition to its own smartphones, other mobile phone manufacturers are also using it, which is compared with Qualcomm and MediaTek’s pure open market mobile phone chips. Apple is purely self-sufficient in different places. However, given the huge shipments of Samsung smartphones, even if the open market is not as good as Qualcomm and MediaTek (shipping volume), only the digestion of some of its own smartphones is enough to achieve the scale needed for survival and development. Referring to funds, similar to Apple, Samsung is not bad.
As for China's Huawei's Hess. Compared with Apple and Samsung, Heis's situation is rather embarrassing. This kind of embarrassment is mainly reflected in whether it can meet the scale of survival if it is in accordance with the current self-sufficiency development model. After all, from the perspective of self-sufficiency, Huawei has only adopted its own HiSilicon chip in its own small number of models. This is due to the fact that the HiSilicon chip disclosed by the recent Kirin 920 chip was released for 8 years, only on smartphones. Shipped 15 million pieces can be seen. This is also the reason why the industry has been discussing in the near future, whether Hais wants to grow and develop, whether it should develop independently, and take the market open. However, Huawei also said from the Kirin 920 conference that in the short term, the HiSilicon chip is only limited to its own use. Not only the industry, including Huawei itself, seems to be worried. If Haisi goes to the open market, it will rely on its current brand influence in the industry. , technology, etc., will there be third-party mobile phone manufacturers to adopt? Even if so, how much is it used?
In addition, it needs to be added, according to the scale, according to the 2013 global top 25 fabless IC design company revenue ranking released by IC Insights, Haisi's 2013 annual revenue was 1.355 billion US dollars, ranking first. 12, only 8% and 30% of Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue. As for the technical aspect, although the industry has released from the recent Kirin 920, HiSilicon has caught up with and even surpassed the mobile phone chip boss Qualcomm, but we are reminded that Qualcomm recently released the 64-bit Snapdragon 800 series of flagship equipment. The (808 and 810) chips will use ARM's Cortex A57 and Cortex A53 hybrid architectures and 20nm processes. In contrast, the Kirin 920 is only ARM's Cortex-A15 and Cortex-A7 architectures and 28nm process.
Therefore, whether Haisi can finally gain a foothold in the mobile phone chip market, the self and objective challenges (technology, scale, etc.) that need to be faced are still arduous.
Finally, the biggest suspense is that Intel is completely different from the above vendors. We call it completely different because it uses its own X86 architecture in the mobile phone chip market. Due to the architecture and market awareness, Intel's current smartphone market is quite different from Qualcomm's technology and MediaTek's price/performance ratio. Although at the just-concluded 2014 Taipei Computer Show, Intel revealed to the outside world that it will ship SoFIA SoC chips with GPU, video and ISP units and 2G/3G baseband in the fourth quarter of this year, which will be released in the first quarter of next year. The 4G version of SoFIA, but compared to rivals, Intel's rhythm is obviously nearly a year late. Although Intel said that there will still be 60% of the 3G smartphone market in the smartphone market next year, the lower price advantage of the 3G mobile phone chip will likely make the cost of the Intel mobile phone chip a fatal shortcoming.
From this point of view, the technical delay, the negative effect of the scale brought by the high cost, Intel's only remaining advantage is the funds. That is, as the leader of the global chip industry, Intel has strong financial strength. This depends on Intel's determination in the mobile phone chip market. If it insists on having a place in this market, and relying on the strength of funds to fight the war, coupled with its beginning to increase in the mobile phone chip market, the possibility of survival is not without.
In summary, we believe that in the future mobile phone chip market, we can identify the manufacturers that can survive. In the open market, it will be Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung; Apple chips will exist independently; HiSilicon and Intel have variables. As for other manufacturers, it is better to make plans early. Here, some people may question why vendors such as Spreadtrum and Marvell are not in the analysis. What we want to ask is, what are the advantages of differentiation between Qualcomm and MediaTek? In fact, according to the industry's future mobile phone chip market can only be measured by two or three companies can survive and develop, our forecast is already quite optimistic.
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